TODO.md

@@ -31,6 +31,8 @@ ranking; unlabeled items are "someday, if the mood strikes."
   earlier than the other would benefit from per-person
   `retirement_age` fields on each `type::birthdate` record, with
   contributions stopped per-person.
+- Multiple spending models: flat (current), decreasing (1-2% real annual decrease,
+  Blanchett "spending smile"). Late-life healthcare better modeled as a life event.
 - **Historical projection overlay follow-ups.** The base
   `--overlay-actuals` overlay shipped (CLI tip + TUI primary surface).
   Open enhancements:
@@ -207,93 +209,41 @@ populate. This could be solved on the server by spawning a thread to fetch the
 data, then returning 202 Accepted, which could then be polled client side. Maybe
 this is a better long term approach?
 
-## Support Tiingo paid plan - priority LOW
+## Configurable live-quote provider (Tiingo IEX) - priority LOW
-
-zfin hardwires Tiingo to free-tier assumptions: the provider is
-constructed with `RateLimiter.perHour(io, 50)` in `Tiingo.init`
-(`providers/tiingo.zig`), and the only Tiingo surface is end-of-day
-candles plus the corporate actions that ride along in the same
-response. A user who pays for a Tiingo plan ($30/mo Power tier and
-up) gets nothing for it today - the same 50/hour throttle, the same
-EOD-only data. "Support the paid plan" is the umbrella for unlocking
-what that subscription actually buys: higher rate limits and
-real-time IEX quotes. The two are coupled (real-time polling only
-makes sense once the limit is raised), which is why they belong in
-one entry rather than two.
-
-### Tier-aware rate limiting
-
-The 50/hour cap is hardcoded in `Tiingo.init`
-(`RateLimiter.perHour(io, 50)`), and the module docstring bakes in
-"Free tier: 50 requests/hour and 1,000 requests/day." Paid tiers
-raise both ceilings substantially, so a paying subscriber is being
-throttled far below their entitlement. Today only the hourly bucket
-is wired; the daily ceiling isn't enforced at all (the docstring
-notes it's "far from binding" for bursty EOD usage - real-time
-polling changes that calculus).
-
-Work:
-
-- Make the Tiingo limits configurable instead of hardcoded. Options:
-  explicit `ZFIN_TIINGO_RATE_PER_HOUR` (and per-day) numeric env
-  knobs, or a coarser `ZFIN_TIINGO_PLAN` = `free` (default) |
-  `power` | ... that maps to known limits. Lean toward explicit
-  numeric overrides so we aren't chasing Tiingo's published per-tier
-  numbers as they drift.
-- `RateLimiter` already supports arbitrary `init(io, max, window_ns)`
-  plus `perDay`/`perHour` convenience ctors, so the limiter side is
-  cheap. Decide whether a paid plan needs both an hourly and a daily
-  bucket enforced, or whether hourly alone stays sufficient.
-- Caveat from `RateLimiter`'s own docs: the bucket is in-memory and
-  per-process - it caps a single run's burst, not usage across
-  separate launches in the same window. Sustained real-time polling
-  (below) makes cross-process usage likelier, so revisit whether
-  per-process accounting is still good enough.
-
-### Real-time IEX quotes (was: configurable live-quote provider)
 
 The TUI refresh key (`r`) values the portfolio with live intraday
-quotes via `DataService.loadLiveQuotes` (`service.zig`), which is
+quotes via `DataService.loadLiveQuotes`, which is Yahoo-only: Yahoo is
-Yahoo-only: Yahoo is keyless, consolidated, and stays off every
+keyless, consolidated, and stays off every rate-limit budget, so bursty
-rate-limit budget, so bursty refresh traffic costs nothing. The
+refresh traffic costs nothing. The tradeoffs are that Yahoo's
-tradeoffs are that Yahoo's unofficial feed is ~15-minute delayed and
+unofficial feed is ~15-minute delayed and "can break without notice."
-"can break without notice."
 
 Tiingo's IEX endpoint (`/iex/?tickers=A,B,C`) is a strong opt-in
-alternative for a paid subscriber: it's genuinely real-time (IEX
+alternative: it's genuinely real-time (IEX last-sale, no 15-min delay),
-last-sale, no 15-min delay), official/keyed, and bills per HTTP
+official/keyed, and bills per HTTP request - one call returns the whole
-request - one call returns the whole portfolio (confirmed
+portfolio (confirmed empirically: a 2-ticker batch decrements the daily
-empirically: a 2-ticker batch decrements the daily quota by 1, not
+quota by 1, not 2). Fields map cleanly: `tngoLast` to price, `prevClose`
-2). Fields map cleanly: `tngoLast` to price, `prevClose` to
+to day-change. Caveats: IEX is a single venue (~2-3% of volume), so
-day-change. Caveats: IEX is a single venue (~2-3% of volume), so
 `tngoLast` can sit stale between prints on illiquid names, and IEX
 doesn't trade mutual funds, so those fall back to the candle close.
 
 Proposal: a config knob (env var, e.g. `ZFIN_LIVE_QUOTE_PROVIDER` =
 `yahoo` (default) | `tiingo`) that switches `loadLiveQuotes` to a new
-`Tiingo.fetchQuotes(tickers)` batched call. A paid subscriber who
+`Tiingo.fetchQuotes(tickers)` batched call. Someone on Tiingo's Power
-wants real-time and mashes `r` a lot (or once we add streaming)
+tier ($30/mo, higher limits) who wants real-time and mashes `r` a lot
-reuses their existing `TIINGO_API_KEY` and gets real-time coverage;
+(or once we add streaming) reuses their existing `TIINGO_API_KEY` and
-everyone else keeps the keyless Yahoo default.
+gets real-time coverage; everyone else keeps the keyless Yahoo default.
 
 Implementation notes:
 
-- `Tiingo.fetchQuotes` returns an array whose order is NOT guaranteed
+- `Tiingo.fetchQuotes` returns an array whose order is NOT guaranteed to
-  to match the request order, so key results by the returned
+  match the request order, so key results by the returned `ticker`
-  `ticker` field, not by position.
+  field, not by position.
-- Live quotes share Tiingo's token bucket, so this is the concrete
+- Tiingo-sourced live quotes would share Tiingo's 50/hour token bucket
-  reason the tier-aware rate-limiting work above has to land first
+  (`RateLimiter.perHour`, wired into the provider). A batched quote
-  (or alongside): a batched quote call is only 1 request, but heavy
+  call is 1 request, but heavy `r` use plus candle refreshes draw from
-  `r` use plus candle refreshes draining the free 50/hour bucket is
+  the same hourly budget, so watch for contention.
-  exactly the contention that raising the paid-tier limit relieves.
+  - Tiingo websocket streaming would be the natural follow-on for true
-
+   push-based real-time, replacing poll-on-`r` entirely.
-### Websocket streaming (follow-on)
-
-Tiingo's IEX websocket would be the natural follow-on for true
-push-based real-time, replacing poll-on-`r` entirely. Materially
-bigger than the REST quote path (persistent connection, reconnect
-handling, a background task feeding the TUI) and squarely a
-paid-plan feature. Sequence it after the REST quote path proves out.
 
 ## Analysis: dividend equity / income-shaped equity - think about it
 

docs/explanation/projections-model.md

@@ -26,9 +26,6 @@ Every projection runs the same two phases in order:
    zero years (an already-retired view).
 2. **Distribution** -- annual spending withdrawn (CPI-adjusted by
    default), no contributions. Its length is the configured `horizon`.
-   Spending is flat in real terms unless you set
-   [`spending_change`](../reference/config/projections-srf.md#declining-spending-the-smile)
-   to taper or grow it year over year (the Blanchett "spending smile").
 
 [Life events](../reference/config/projections-srf.md#event-fields)
 (Social Security, pensions, tuition, healthcare) adjust the cash flow

docs/reference/config/projections-srf.md

@@ -45,7 +45,6 @@ type::event,name::Social Security,start_age:num:70,amount:num:38400
 | `contribution_inflation_adjusted`    | bool | If `true` (default), contributions grow with CPI year over year.                                                               |
 | `target_spending`                    | num  | Desired retirement spending, in today's dollars.                                                                               |
 | `target_spending_inflation_adjusted` | bool | If `true` (default), target spending grows with CPI during distribution.                                                       |
-| `spending_change`                    | num  | Signed annual *real* change in spending across the distribution phase, as a whole percent. Negative = declining (e.g. `-2` = -2%/yr, the "spending smile"); positive = rising. Default: absent = flat real spending. Magnitude clamped to 10%/yr. See [Declining spending](#declining-spending-the-smile). |
 | `max_accumulation_years`             | num  | Ceiling (in years) the earliest-retirement search scans when `target_spending` is set. Default `50`, capped at `100`.          |
 | `retirement_target`                  | num  | Annotation on a `horizon`/`horizon_age` line that overrides the earliest-retirement promotion rule. Allowed: `90`, `95`, `99`. |
 
@@ -81,43 +80,6 @@ individual stocks, bonds, and cash contribute ~0. Set the result once:
 [Parity with FIRECalc](../../explanation/projections-model.md#parity-with-firecalc)
 for how the fee interacts with the rest of the model.
 
-### Declining spending (the smile)
-
-By default the simulation holds spending flat in real terms - the same
-inflation-adjusted dollars every year. Real retirees don't behave that
-way: spending tends to taper as people age (David Blanchett's
-"spending smile"). Set `spending_change` to model that drift:
-
-```
-type::config,spending_change:num:-2
-```
-
-is a 2%/yr real decline. The value is a **whole percent**, and the
-**sign is the direction**: negative declines, positive rises. Absent
-(the default) means flat. The magnitude is clamped to 10%/yr - a
-larger value is almost always a units typo (entering a fraction like
-`0.02` where a percent was meant).
-
-How it interacts with the rest of the model:
-
-- The safe-withdrawal numbers become the **first** distribution
-  year's spend; each later year is scaled by the drift. Declining
-  spending therefore *raises* the safe first-year withdrawal (you
-  spend less later, so you can afford more now); rising spending
-  lowers it.
-- The drift is a straight line. The Blanchett smile's late-life
-  *upturn* (healthcare) is not baked in - model it separately as a
-  `type::event` expense (see below). Composing a declining
-  `spending_change` with a late-life healthcare expense reproduces
-  the full U-shaped smile.
-- When a drift is configured, the Safe Withdrawal table gains a
-  **lowest-spending callout** in today's dollars - e.g.
-  `Lowest spending: $121,235 in year 12 (2037)`. Because it accounts
-  for expense events, the bottom of the U can land mid-retirement
-  rather than at the final year.
-
-See the `post-retirement-smile/` example for a worked configuration.
-
 ### Capping outlier returns
 
 The **Projected return** shown by `zfin projections` (and the "Projected
@@ -221,7 +183,7 @@ anchor.
 
 ## The example configurations
 
-The six bundled examples are fully-configured walkthroughs of each
+The five bundled examples are fully-configured walkthroughs of each
 combination:
 
 | `examples/...`                   | Inputs                                            |
@@ -231,7 +193,6 @@ combination:
 | `pre-retirement-spending-target` | target spending + an explicit (infeasible) anchor |
 | `pre-retirement-both`            | target date + target spending                     |
 | `post-retirement`                | neither (distribution-only)                       |
-| `post-retirement-smile`          | distribution-only + declining `spending_change`   |
 
 ```bash
 ZFIN_HOME=examples/pre-retirement-both zfin projections

examples/README.md

@@ -11,7 +11,6 @@ ZFIN_HOME=examples/pre-retirement-age               zfin projections
 ZFIN_HOME=examples/pre-retirement-spending          zfin projections
 ZFIN_HOME=examples/pre-retirement-spending-target   zfin projections
 ZFIN_HOME=examples/post-retirement                  zfin projections
-ZFIN_HOME=examples/post-retirement-smile            zfin projections
 ZFIN_HOME=examples/pre-retirement-both              zfin --tui
 ```
 
@@ -20,10 +19,10 @@ these examples are fictional. Do not interpret them as advice.
 
 ## Available examples
 
-The six scenarios share the same fictional couple and balance sheet
+The five scenarios share the same fictional couple and balance sheet
 (~$1.3M, age ~45, contributing $80k/yr) for the four pre-retirement
-variants, and a separate retired couple for the two distribution
+variants, and a separate retired couple for the distribution example.
-examples. Only the `projections.srf` configuration differs across the
+Only the `projections.srf` configuration differs across the
 pre-retirement variants - making it easy to see how each
 retirement-planning input shapes the output.
 
@@ -132,32 +131,6 @@ starting at age 80, plus Social Security already in pay status.
 Asset allocation target: 60/40 (more bond-heavy than the
 pre-retirement examples).
 
-### `post-retirement-smile/`
-
-The same retired couple as `post-retirement/`, but demonstrating the
-**declining spending model** (`spending_change`). Real spending is no
-longer held flat - it drifts down 2%/yr (`spending_change:num:-2`),
-modeling the Blanchett "spending smile": retirees spend more in the
-early "go-go" years and taper through the "slow-go" years.
-
-The smile's late-life upturn is NOT baked into the model - it is
-composed from the existing life-event mechanism. The age-80 healthcare
-expense (sized as a realistic long-term-care figure) supplies the
-rising "no-go" limb on top of the declining base. Because that expense
-outweighs the base decline once it starts, the lowest-spending year
-lands in mid-retirement (the year just before age 80), not the final
-year. The Safe Withdrawal table gains a callout:
-
-```
-  Lowest spending: $121,235 in year 12 (2037), today's dollars
-```
-
-reporting the bottom of the U in today's dollars. Note the first-year
-safe withdrawal is *higher* than in the flat `post-retirement/`
-example: spending less in later years frees up a larger draw early.
-(Exact figures move with the live benchmark data; the shape is the
-point.)
-
 ## Configuration file map
 
 Every example contains:

examples/post-retirement-smile/accounts.srf

@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
-#!srfv1
-# Account tax type classification for the post-retirement example.
-
-account::Robin Trad IRA,tax_type::traditional,institution::fidelity,account_number::RTRA
-account::Robin Roth,tax_type::roth,institution::fidelity,account_number::RROT
-account::Jamie Trad IRA,tax_type::traditional,institution::vanguard,account_number::JTRA
-account::Jamie Roth,tax_type::roth,institution::vanguard,account_number::JROT
-account::Joint taxable,tax_type::taxable,institution::schwab,account_number::JT01
-account::Family HSA,tax_type::hsa,institution::fidelity,account_number::HSA01

examples/post-retirement-smile/history/2024-04-01-portfolio.srf

@@ -1,37 +0,0 @@
-#!srfv1
-# Synthetic snapshot for the projection-overlay demo. Real users land
-# real snapshot files here via `zfin snapshot`; this fixture is shaped
-# the same way but the totals are made up so the example renders with
-# meaningful numbers.
-kind::meta,snapshot_version:num:1,as_of_date::2024-04-01,captured_at:num:1711929600,zfin_version::example,stale_count:num:0
-kind::total,scope::net_worth,value:num:2350000.00
-kind::total,scope::liquid,value:num:2350000.00
-kind::total,scope::illiquid,value:num:0
-kind::tax_type,label::Traditional (Pre-Tax),value:num:1450000.00
-kind::tax_type,label::Roth (Post-Tax),value:num:480000.00
-kind::tax_type,label::Taxable,value:num:380000.00
-kind::tax_type,label::HSA (Triple Tax-Free),value:num:40000.00
-kind::account,name::Robin Trad IRA,value:num:980000.00
-kind::account,name::Jamie Trad IRA,value:num:470000.00
-kind::account,name::Robin Roth,value:num:280000.00
-kind::account,name::Jamie Roth,value:num:200000.00
-kind::account,name::Joint taxable,value:num:380000.00
-kind::account,name::Family HSA,value:num:40000.00
-kind::lot,symbol::VTI,lot_symbol::VTI,account::Robin Trad IRA,security_type::Stock,shares:num:1800,open_price:num:60.20,cost_basis:num:108360.00,value:num:455400.00,price:num:253.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
-kind::lot,symbol::AGG,lot_symbol::AGG,account::Robin Trad IRA,security_type::Stock,shares:num:1400,open_price:num:107.40,cost_basis:num:150360.00,value:num:138600.00,price:num:99.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
-kind::lot,symbol::SCHD,lot_symbol::SCHD,account::Robin Trad IRA,security_type::Stock,shares:num:600,open_price:num:53.10,cost_basis:num:31860.00,value:num:46500.00,price:num:77.50,quote_date::2024-04-01
-kind::lot,symbol::cash,lot_symbol::cash,account::Robin Trad IRA,security_type::Cash,shares:num:18500,open_price:num:1.00,cost_basis:num:18500.00,value:num:18500.00,price:num:1.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
-kind::lot,symbol::VTI,lot_symbol::VTI,account::Robin Roth,security_type::Stock,shares:num:380,open_price:num:71.50,cost_basis:num:27170.00,value:num:96140.00,price:num:253.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
-kind::lot,symbol::QQQ,lot_symbol::QQQ,account::Robin Roth,security_type::Stock,shares:num:140,open_price:num:97.30,cost_basis:num:13622.00,value:num:62300.00,price:num:445.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
-kind::lot,symbol::cash,lot_symbol::cash,account::Robin Roth,security_type::Cash,shares:num:1240,open_price:num:1.00,cost_basis:num:1240.00,value:num:1240.00,price:num:1.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
-kind::lot,symbol::VTI,lot_symbol::VTI,account::Jamie Trad IRA,security_type::Stock,shares:num:920,open_price:num:64.80,cost_basis:num:59616.00,value:num:232760.00,price:num:253.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
-kind::lot,symbol::AGG,lot_symbol::AGG,account::Jamie Trad IRA,security_type::Stock,shares:num:850,open_price:num:108.10,cost_basis:num:91885.00,value:num:84150.00,price:num:99.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
-kind::lot,symbol::cash,lot_symbol::cash,account::Jamie Trad IRA,security_type::Cash,shares:num:9800,open_price:num:1.00,cost_basis:num:9800.00,value:num:9800.00,price:num:1.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
-kind::lot,symbol::SPY,lot_symbol::SPY,account::Jamie Roth,security_type::Stock,shares:num:200,open_price:num:152.20,cost_basis:num:30440.00,value:num:104000.00,price:num:520.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
-kind::lot,symbol::SCHD,lot_symbol::SCHD,account::Jamie Roth,security_type::Stock,shares:num:280,open_price:num:55.40,cost_basis:num:15512.00,value:num:21700.00,price:num:77.50,quote_date::2024-04-01
-kind::lot,symbol::cash,lot_symbol::cash,account::Jamie Roth,security_type::Cash,shares:num:715,open_price:num:1.00,cost_basis:num:715.00,value:num:715.00,price:num:1.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
-kind::lot,symbol::SPY,lot_symbol::SPY,account::Joint taxable,security_type::Stock,shares:num:240,open_price:num:198.40,cost_basis:num:47616.00,value:num:124800.00,price:num:520.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
-kind::lot,symbol::AGG,lot_symbol::AGG,account::Joint taxable,security_type::Stock,shares:num:600,open_price:num:106.90,cost_basis:num:64140.00,value:num:59400.00,price:num:99.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
-kind::lot,symbol::cash,lot_symbol::cash,account::Joint taxable,security_type::Cash,shares:num:62000,open_price:num:1.00,cost_basis:num:62000.00,value:num:62000.00,price:num:1.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
-kind::lot,symbol::VTI,lot_symbol::VTI,account::Family HSA,security_type::Stock,shares:num:140,open_price:num:108.30,cost_basis:num:15162.00,value:num:35420.00,price:num:253.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
-kind::lot,symbol::cash,lot_symbol::cash,account::Family HSA,security_type::Cash,shares:num:4200,open_price:num:1.00,cost_basis:num:4200.00,value:num:4200.00,price:num:1.00,quote_date::2024-04-01

examples/post-retirement-smile/history/2024-10-01-portfolio.srf

@@ -1,16 +0,0 @@
-#!srfv1
-# Synthetic snapshot - see 2024-04-01-portfolio.srf for the framing.
-kind::meta,snapshot_version:num:1,as_of_date::2024-10-01,captured_at:num:1727740800,zfin_version::example,stale_count:num:0
-kind::total,scope::net_worth,value:num:2470000.00
-kind::total,scope::liquid,value:num:2470000.00
-kind::total,scope::illiquid,value:num:0
-kind::tax_type,label::Traditional (Pre-Tax),value:num:1520000.00
-kind::tax_type,label::Roth (Post-Tax),value:num:505000.00
-kind::tax_type,label::Taxable,value:num:402000.00
-kind::tax_type,label::HSA (Triple Tax-Free),value:num:43000.00
-kind::account,name::Robin Trad IRA,value:num:1030000.00
-kind::account,name::Jamie Trad IRA,value:num:490000.00
-kind::account,name::Robin Roth,value:num:295000.00
-kind::account,name::Jamie Roth,value:num:210000.00
-kind::account,name::Joint taxable,value:num:402000.00
-kind::account,name::Family HSA,value:num:43000.00

examples/post-retirement-smile/history/2025-04-01-portfolio.srf

@@ -1,16 +0,0 @@
-#!srfv1
-# Synthetic snapshot - see 2024-04-01-portfolio.srf for the framing.
-kind::meta,snapshot_version:num:1,as_of_date::2025-04-01,captured_at:num:1743465600,zfin_version::example,stale_count:num:0
-kind::total,scope::net_worth,value:num:2580000.00
-kind::total,scope::liquid,value:num:2580000.00
-kind::total,scope::illiquid,value:num:0
-kind::tax_type,label::Traditional (Pre-Tax),value:num:1590000.00
-kind::tax_type,label::Roth (Post-Tax),value:num:528000.00
-kind::tax_type,label::Taxable,value:num:418000.00
-kind::tax_type,label::HSA (Triple Tax-Free),value:num:44000.00
-kind::account,name::Robin Trad IRA,value:num:1075000.00
-kind::account,name::Jamie Trad IRA,value:num:515000.00
-kind::account,name::Robin Roth,value:num:308000.00
-kind::account,name::Jamie Roth,value:num:220000.00
-kind::account,name::Joint taxable,value:num:418000.00
-kind::account,name::Family HSA,value:num:44000.00

examples/post-retirement-smile/history/imported_values.srf

@@ -1,441 +0,0 @@
-#!srfv1
-# Synthetic imported_values for the projection-overlay demo.
-# One row per week, 2016-01-03 through 2024-03-31, geometric
-# growth from $1.5M to $2.35M with light noise. The post-
-# retirement household had a longer accumulation history before
-# the household-wide retirement on 2023-12-31; the overlay shows
-# how the trajectory looked relative to projections from any
-# past as-of date.
-#
-# All numbers fictional.
-date::2016-01-03,liquid:num:1506274.21
-date::2016-01-10,liquid:num:1480170.08
-date::2016-01-17,liquid:num:1492990.64
-date::2016-01-24,liquid:num:1492211.09
-date::2016-01-31,liquid:num:1516963.26
-date::2016-02-07,liquid:num:1515844.10
-date::2016-02-14,liquid:num:1527185.11
-date::2016-02-21,liquid:num:1492278.80
-date::2016-02-28,liquid:num:1509038.33
-date::2016-03-06,liquid:num:1492802.49
-date::2016-03-13,liquid:num:1502948.92
-date::2016-03-20,liquid:num:1517570.24
-date::2016-03-27,liquid:num:1497336.99
-date::2016-04-03,liquid:num:1506760.66
-date::2016-04-10,liquid:num:1528930.61
-date::2016-04-17,liquid:num:1525730.79
-date::2016-04-24,liquid:num:1512476.06
-date::2016-05-01,liquid:num:1530950.36
-date::2016-05-08,liquid:num:1542644.98
-date::2016-05-15,liquid:num:1507400.61
-date::2016-05-22,liquid:num:1545703.68
-date::2016-05-29,liquid:num:1542365.33
-date::2016-06-05,liquid:num:1527497.31
-date::2016-06-12,liquid:num:1520576.18
-date::2016-06-19,liquid:num:1559158.06
-date::2016-06-26,liquid:num:1532120.38
-date::2016-07-03,liquid:num:1522445.71
-date::2016-07-10,liquid:num:1524219.86
-date::2016-07-17,liquid:num:1560599.35
-date::2016-07-24,liquid:num:1550922.78
-date::2016-07-31,liquid:num:1561987.23
-date::2016-08-07,liquid:num:1560021.49
-date::2016-08-14,liquid:num:1552647.61
-date::2016-08-21,liquid:num:1574618.65
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examples/post-retirement-smile/metadata.srf

@@ -1,8 +0,0 @@
-#!srfv1
-# Symbol classification metadata for the post-retirement example.
-
-symbol::VTI,sector::Diversified,geo::US,asset_class::US Large Cap
-symbol::SPY,sector::Diversified,geo::US,asset_class::US Large Cap
-symbol::QQQ,sector::Technology,geo::US,asset_class::US Large Cap
-symbol::SCHD,sector::Diversified,geo::US,asset_class::US Large Cap
-symbol::AGG,sector::Bonds,geo::US,asset_class::Bonds

examples/post-retirement-smile/portfolio.srf

@@ -1,35 +0,0 @@
-#!srfv1
-# Example portfolio: post-retirement household, ~age 68, ~$2.5M total.
-# All names, share counts, and prices are fictional. The household is
-# already retired and drawing down - see projections.srf for the
-# distribution-only configuration (no accumulation).
-
-# Robin's Traditional IRA - primary drawdown source
-symbol::VTI,shares:num:1800,open_date::2010-08-15,open_price:num:60.20,account::Robin Trad IRA
-symbol::AGG,shares:num:1400,open_date::2015-03-22,open_price:num:107.40,account::Robin Trad IRA
-symbol::SCHD,shares:num:600,open_date::2018-04-30,open_price:num:53.10,account::Robin Trad IRA
-security_type::cash,shares:num:18500.00,open_date::2026-04-30,open_price:num:1.00,account::Robin Trad IRA
-
-# Robin's Roth IRA - preserved for late-life / heirs
-symbol::VTI,shares:num:380,open_date::2012-11-08,open_price:num:71.50,account::Robin Roth
-symbol::QQQ,shares:num:140,open_date::2014-06-12,open_price:num:97.30,account::Robin Roth
-security_type::cash,shares:num:1240.00,open_date::2026-04-30,open_price:num:1.00,account::Robin Roth
-
-# Jamie's Traditional IRA
-symbol::VTI,shares:num:920,open_date::2011-05-18,open_price:num:64.80,account::Jamie Trad IRA
-symbol::AGG,shares:num:850,open_date::2016-09-04,open_price:num:108.10,account::Jamie Trad IRA
-security_type::cash,shares:num:9800.00,open_date::2026-04-30,open_price:num:1.00,account::Jamie Trad IRA
-
-# Jamie's Roth IRA
-symbol::SPY,shares:num:200,open_date::2013-02-14,open_price:num:152.20,account::Jamie Roth
-symbol::SCHD,shares:num:280,open_date::2020-08-25,open_price:num:55.40,account::Jamie Roth
-security_type::cash,shares:num:715.00,open_date::2026-04-30,open_price:num:1.00,account::Jamie Roth
-
-# Joint taxable - bridge income, RMD overflow
-symbol::SPY,shares:num:240,open_date::2014-09-30,open_price:num:198.40,account::Joint taxable
-symbol::AGG,shares:num:600,open_date::2017-11-15,open_price:num:106.90,account::Joint taxable
-security_type::cash,shares:num:62000.00,open_date::2026-04-30,open_price:num:1.00,account::Joint taxable
-
-# Family HSA - still tax-advantaged, used for late-life medical
-symbol::VTI,shares:num:140,open_date::2016-06-22,open_price:num:108.30,account::Family HSA
-security_type::cash,shares:num:4200.00,open_date::2026-04-30,open_price:num:1.00,account::Family HSA

examples/post-retirement-smile/projections.srf

@@ -1,51 +0,0 @@
-#!srfv1
-# Post-retirement projection with a declining ("spending smile") model.
-#
-# Same retired couple as the post-retirement/ example - Robin (born
-# 1958) and Jamie (born 1961) - but this variant demonstrates the
-# spending_change feature: real spending is not held flat, it drifts.
-#
-# The Blanchett "spending smile": retirees spend more in the early
-# "go-go" years, taper through the "slow-go" years, then spending
-# rises again late as healthcare costs dominate the "no-go" years.
-# zfin models the two limbs separately:
-#
-#   1. The declining limb is `spending_change` below (-2%/yr real).
-#   2. The late-life rise is the Healthcare life event (age 80),
-#      already an expense record - no special-casing needed.
-#
-# Composing those two produces the U-shaped smile, and the
-# "Lowest spending: ... in year N" callout under the Safe Withdrawal
-# table reports the bottom of the U in today's dollars.
-
-# Allocation target shifts more conservative in retirement
-type::config,target_stock_pct:num:60
-
-# Real spending declines 2%/yr through retirement (negative = decline,
-# positive would model a rising real spend). Whole percent; absent =
-# flat real spending, the default.
-type::config,spending_change:num:-2
-
-# Distribution horizons - through age 90 (older partner first)
-type::config,horizon:num:20
-type::config,horizon:num:30
-type::config,horizon_age:num:95
-
-# Birthdates
-type::birthdate,date::1958-02-19
-type::birthdate,date::1961-07-04,person:num:2
-
-# Social Security - both already collecting. Income reduces the
-# portfolio withdrawal but is NOT counted as spending, so it does not
-# move the spending-trough callout.
-type::event,name::Social Security (Robin),start_age:num:67,person:num:1,amount:num:34800
-type::event,name::Social Security (Jamie),start_age:num:65,person:num:2,amount:num:28200
-
-# Late-life healthcare bump - the rising limb of the smile. Modeled as
-# a recurring expense starting at age 80 for the older partner (a
-# realistic long-term-care figure). It is large enough to outweigh the
-# base decline once it starts, so the spending trough lands in
-# mid-retirement - the year just before age 80 - rather than the final
-# year. That mid-trajectory minimum is exactly what the trough callout
-# is for.
-type::event,name::Healthcare (late-life),start_age:num:80,person:num:1,amount:num:-55000

src/analytics/projections.zig

@@ -242,14 +242,6 @@ pub const UserConfig = struct {
     /// If true, the target spending grows with CPI during the
     /// distribution phase (matches the existing SWR model).
     target_spending_inflation_adjusted: bool = true,
-    /// Signed annual *real* change in spending across the
-    /// distribution phase, as a fraction (e.g. -0.02 = declines
-    /// 2%/yr, +0.01 = rises 1%/yr). `null` -> flat real spending,
-    /// the historical default. Set via
-    /// `type::config,spending_change:num:N` where N is a whole
-    /// percent (negative = decline). Feeds `SimParams.
-    /// spending_real_change` for every horizon/confidence cell.
-    spending_real_change: ?f64 = null,
     /// Ceiling on the accumulation years the earliest-retirement
     /// search (`findEarliestRetirement`) will consider when
     /// `target_spending` is set. Defaults to
@@ -488,10 +480,6 @@ const SrfConfig = struct {
     contribution_inflation_adjusted: ?bool = null,
     target_spending: ?f64 = null,
     target_spending_inflation_adjusted: ?bool = null,
-    /// Signed annual real spending change, in whole percent
-    /// (negative = decline). Parsed/clamped into
-    /// `UserConfig.spending_real_change` as a fraction.
-    spending_change: ?f64 = null,
     max_accumulation_years: ?u16 = null,
     benchmark_stock: ?[]const u8 = null,
     benchmark_bond: ?[]const u8 = null,
@@ -520,15 +508,6 @@ const SrfProjection = union(enum) {
     event: SrfEvent,
 };
 
-/// Clamp on the magnitude of `spending_change` (10%/yr real, in
-/// either direction). A larger drift is almost certainly a units
-/// typo - someone entering a fraction (0.02) where a whole percent
-/// (2) was expected reads as 0.02%/yr (negligible), but the reverse
-/// (entering 20 meaning 0.20) would otherwise crater spending to
-/// zero within a decade. The clamp keeps a fat-fingered value from
-/// silently producing nonsense.
-pub const max_abs_spending_real_change: f64 = 0.10;
-
 /// Parse a projections.srf file into a UserConfig.
 /// Returns default config if data is null or unparseable.
 ///
@@ -546,7 +525,6 @@ pub const max_abs_spending_real_change: f64 = 0.10;
 /// Format (union-tagged SRF records):
 ///   type::config,target_stock_pct:num:80
 ///   type::config,horizon:num:30
-///   type::config,spending_change:num:-2
 ///   type::birthdate,date::1975-03-15
 ///   type::event,name::Social Security,start_age:num:67,amount:num:38400
 pub fn parseProjectionsConfig(data: ?[]const u8) UserConfig {
@@ -654,23 +632,6 @@ pub fn parseProjectionsConfig(data: ?[]const u8) UserConfig {
                 if (c.target_spending_inflation_adjusted) |b| {
                     config.target_spending_inflation_adjusted = b;
                 }
-                if (c.spending_change) |pct| {
-                    // Entered as a whole percent (negative = decline,
-                    // positive = rising real spending); stored as a
-                    // fraction. Clamp the magnitude so a units typo
-                    // can't drive spending to zero or absurd growth.
-                    const frac = pct / 100.0;
-                    const cap = max_abs_spending_real_change;
-                    if (frac > cap) {
-                        warnUser("projections: spending_change capped at +{d:.0}%/yr (got {d}%)", .{ cap * 100.0, pct });
-                        config.spending_real_change = cap;
-                    } else if (frac < -cap) {
-                        warnUser("projections: spending_change capped at -{d:.0}%/yr (got {d}%)", .{ cap * 100.0, pct });
-                        config.spending_real_change = -cap;
-                    } else {
-                        config.spending_real_change = frac;
-                    }
-                }
                 if (c.max_accumulation_years) |n| {
                     if (n == 0) {
                         // A zero-year search ceiling is degenerate (it
@@ -799,19 +760,6 @@ pub const SimParams = struct {
     stock_pct: f64,
     annual_spending: f64,
     spending_inflation_adjusted: bool = true,
-    /// Signed annual *real* change in spending, applied across the
-    /// distribution phase (the "spending smile" / Blanchett model).
-    /// A fraction: -0.02 = spending declines 2%/yr in real terms
-    /// ("slow-go" years), +0.01 = rises 1%/yr. `0` (the default) is
-    /// flat real spending - the historical behavior, byte-identical.
-    ///
-    /// `annual_spending` is the *first* distribution year's spend;
-    /// year `d` of distribution spends `annual_spending * (1 +
-    /// spending_real_change)^d` in real terms, then the usual CPI
-    /// factor converts to nominal. Localized late-life cost humps
-    /// (healthcare) are modeled separately as `events`, so this is a
-    /// monotonic drift, not the full U-curve.
-    spending_real_change: f64 = 0,
     /// Distribution-phase length (the "horizon" in the existing API).
     distribution_years: u16,
     accumulation_years: u16 = 0,
@@ -885,13 +833,6 @@ fn simulateTwoPhase(
     if (buf) |b| b[0] = portfolio;
 
     var cumulative_inflation: f64 = 1.0;
-    // Real-spending multiplier for the current distribution year.
-    // Pinned at 1.0 through accumulation and the first distribution
-    // year (d=0), then compounded by `(1 + spending_real_change)`
-    // each subsequent distribution year. `spending_real_change == 0`
-    // leaves it at 1.0 forever -> flat real spending, byte-identical
-    // to the pre-smile behavior.
-    var spend_factor: f64 = 1.0;
     var failed = false;
 
     var y: usize = 0;
@@ -924,11 +865,10 @@ fn simulateTwoPhase(
                 params.annual_contribution;
             portfolio += contribution + event_net;
         } else {
-            const real_spending = params.annual_spending * spend_factor;
             const spending = if (params.spending_inflation_adjusted)
-                real_spending * cumulative_inflation
+                params.annual_spending * cumulative_inflation
             else
-                real_spending;
+                params.annual_spending;
             portfolio -= spending - event_net;
             if (portfolio <= 0 and !failed) {
                 // Survival-only callers exit immediately - there's
@@ -936,9 +876,6 @@ fn simulateTwoPhase(
                 if (buf == null) return false;
                 failed = true;
             }
-            // Compound the real-spending drift for next year. No-op
-            // when `spending_real_change == 0` (factor stays 1.0).
-            spend_factor *= (1.0 + params.spending_real_change);
         }
 
         // Market return on the post-cashflow balance, net of the
@@ -1062,13 +999,11 @@ pub fn findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(
     annual_contribution: f64,
     contribution_inflation_adjusted: bool,
     expense_ratio: f64,
-    spending_real_change: f64,
 ) WithdrawalResult {
     return searchSafeWithdrawal(.{
         .initial_value = initial_value,
         .stock_pct = stock_pct,
         .annual_spending = 0, // overwritten by the search loop
-        .spending_real_change = spending_real_change,
         .distribution_years = horizon,
         .accumulation_years = accumulation_years,
         .annual_contribution = annual_contribution,
@@ -1204,7 +1139,6 @@ pub fn findEarliestRetirement(
     events: []const ResolvedEvent,
     max_years: u16,
     expense_ratio: f64,
-    spending_real_change: f64,
 ) !EarliestRetirement {
     const data = shiller.annual_returns;
 
@@ -1215,7 +1149,6 @@ pub fn findEarliestRetirement(
             .stock_pct = stock_pct,
             .annual_spending = target_spending,
             .spending_inflation_adjusted = target_spending_inflation_adjusted,
-            .spending_real_change = spending_real_change,
             .distribution_years = distribution_years,
             .accumulation_years = n,
             .annual_contribution = annual_contribution,
@@ -1549,7 +1482,6 @@ pub fn runProjectionGrid(
     annual_contribution: f64,
     contribution_inflation_adjusted: bool,
     expense_ratio: f64,
-    spending_real_change: f64,
 ) !ProjectionData {
     const num_results = horizons.len * confidence_levels.len;
     const withdrawals = try alloc.alloc(WithdrawalResult, num_results);
@@ -1565,7 +1497,6 @@ pub fn runProjectionGrid(
                 annual_contribution,
                 contribution_inflation_adjusted,
                 expense_ratio,
-                spending_real_change,
             );
         }
     }
@@ -1577,7 +1508,6 @@ pub fn runProjectionGrid(
             .initial_value = total_value,
             .stock_pct = stock_pct,
             .annual_spending = wr.annual_amount,
-            .spending_real_change = spending_real_change,
             .distribution_years = h,
             .accumulation_years = accumulation_years,
             .annual_contribution = annual_contribution,
@@ -1589,83 +1519,7 @@ pub fn runProjectionGrid(
     return .{ .withdrawals = withdrawals, .bands = bands, .ci_99 = ci_99 };
 }
 
-// ── Spending trough (the "how low does it get" callout) ────────
+// ── Test-only convenience wrappers ─────────────────────────────
-
-/// The lowest-spending year of a projection's distribution phase,
-/// in today's dollars. Surfaced next to the first-year safe
-/// withdrawal so a user running a declining ("slow-go") spending
-/// model can see how little they spend at the bottom.
-pub const SpendingTrough = struct {
-    /// Minimum total real spending (today's dollars) reached.
-    amount: f64,
-    /// Distribution-year offset (0-based) where the minimum occurs.
-    year_offset: u16,
-    /// Years from `as_of` to that year, 1-based (1 = first
-    /// retirement year). Equals `accumulation_years + year_offset + 1`.
-    years_from_now: u16,
-    /// Calendar date of the trough year (`as_of` advanced by
-    /// `accumulation_years + year_offset`).
-    date: Date,
-};
-
-/// Find the lowest-spending distribution year, in today's dollars.
-///
-/// Base spending follows the real-change drift: distribution year
-/// `d` spends `first_year_spend * (1 + spending_real_change)^d` in
-/// real terms. EXPENSE life events (negative `annual_amount`, e.g.
-/// late-life healthcare) add to spending - that is what produces a
-/// mid-retirement trough rather than a monotonic slide to the final
-/// year. Income events (Social Security, positive amounts) are
-/// funding rather than spending and are excluded.
-///
-/// Today's-dollar (real) terms throughout: each active expense event
-/// contributes its configured magnitude. This is a deterministic
-/// display approximation - it does not erode non-inflation-adjusted
-/// events across time the way the per-cycle simulation does - but it
-/// gives a single, stable number for the callout. `as_of` anchors
-/// the calendar year.
-///
-/// Returns `null` only for a zero-length distribution phase.
-pub fn spendingTrough(
-    first_year_spend: f64,
-    spending_real_change: f64,
-    events: []const ResolvedEvent,
-    accumulation_years: u16,
-    distribution_years: u16,
-    as_of: Date,
-) ?SpendingTrough {
-    if (distribution_years == 0) return null;
-
-    var min_amount: f64 = std.math.floatMax(f64);
-    var min_d: u16 = 0;
-    var factor: f64 = 1.0;
-
-    var d: u16 = 0;
-    while (d < distribution_years) : (d += 1) {
-        const sim_year = accumulation_years + d;
-        var spend = first_year_spend * factor;
-        for (events) |*ev| {
-            // Only expense events count as spending; income (SS etc.)
-            // funds withdrawals but is not consumption.
-            if (ev.annual_amount < 0 and ev.isActive(sim_year)) {
-                spend += -ev.annual_amount;
-            }
-        }
-        if (spend < min_amount) {
-            min_amount = spend;
-            min_d = d;
-        }
-        factor *= (1.0 + spending_real_change);
-    }
-
-    return .{
-        .amount = min_amount,
-        .year_offset = min_d,
-        .years_from_now = accumulation_years + min_d + 1,
-        .date = as_of.addYears(accumulation_years + min_d),
-    };
-}
-
 //
 // Thin, distribution-only, zero-fee wrappers over the production
 // `*Params` entry points (`searchSafeWithdrawal`, `successRateParams`,
@@ -1964,8 +1818,8 @@ test "FIRECalc parity: expense ratio matches FIRECalc's default fee" {
 
     // Safe withdrawal with the fee on. FIRECalc fee=0.18 refs:
     // 75/25 30y 95% -> $40,381; 75/25 45y 99% $7.7M -> $258,747.
-    const w_30 = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0.0018, 0);
+    const w_30 = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0.0018);
-    const w_45 = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(45, 7_700_000, 0.75, 0.99, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0.0018, 0);
+    const w_45 = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(45, 7_700_000, 0.75, 0.99, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0.0018);
     try std.testing.expect(w_30.annual_amount >= 40_381 * 0.97);
     try std.testing.expect(w_30.annual_amount <= 40_381 * 1.15);
     try std.testing.expect(w_45.annual_amount >= 258_747 * 0.97);
@@ -2619,7 +2473,7 @@ test "regression: zero accumulation matches direct findSafeWithdrawal" {
     // because the two paths execute the same code with the same
     // inputs - any drift here means the unification broke.
     const direct = findSafeWithdrawal(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{});
-    const via_accum = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
+    const via_accum = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0);
     try std.testing.expectEqual(direct.annual_amount, via_accum.annual_amount);
     try std.testing.expectEqual(direct.confidence, via_accum.confidence);
     try std.testing.expectEqual(direct.withdrawal_rate, via_accum.withdrawal_rate);
@@ -2704,7 +2558,7 @@ test "two-phase: SWR with accumulation exceeds same-portfolio direct SWR" {
     // a higher safe withdrawal than $1M alone over a 30-year
     // distribution at the same confidence.
     const direct = findSafeWithdrawal(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{});
-    const with_accum = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{}, 10, 100_000, true, 0, 0);
+    const with_accum = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{}, 10, 100_000, true, 0);
     try std.testing.expect(with_accum.annual_amount > direct.annual_amount);
 }
 
@@ -2788,7 +2642,6 @@ test "findEarliestRetirement: feasible at N=0 returns 0" {
         &.{},
         50, // max_years
         0, // expense_ratio
-        0, // spending_real_change
     );
     try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(?u16, 0), r.accumulation_years);
 }
@@ -2810,7 +2663,6 @@ test "findEarliestRetirement: unreachable returns null" {
         &.{},
         50,
         0, // expense_ratio
-        0, // spending_real_change
     );
     try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(?u16, null), r.accumulation_years);
 }
@@ -2831,7 +2683,6 @@ test "findEarliestRetirement: longer distribution shifts retirement later or unc
         &.{},
         50,
         0, // expense_ratio
-        0, // spending_real_change
     );
     const long = try findEarliestRetirement(
         allocator,
@@ -2846,7 +2697,6 @@ test "findEarliestRetirement: longer distribution shifts retirement later or unc
         &.{},
         50,
         0, // expense_ratio
-        0, // spending_real_change
     );
     if (short.accumulation_years != null and long.accumulation_years != null) {
         try std.testing.expect(long.accumulation_years.? >= short.accumulation_years.?);
@@ -2868,7 +2718,6 @@ test "findEarliestRetirement: result includes portfolio statistics" {
         &.{},
         50,
         0, // expense_ratio
-        0, // spending_real_change
     );
     if (r.accumulation_years) |n| {
         if (n > 0) {
@@ -3147,7 +2996,7 @@ test "runProjectionGrid: structure and indexing" {
     const horizons = [_]u16{ 20, 30 };
     const conf = [_]f64{ 0.95, 0.99 };
 
-    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
+    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0);
     defer freeProjectionData(allocator, data);
 
     // 2 horizons × 2 confidence levels = 4 withdrawal results.
@@ -3165,7 +3014,7 @@ test "runProjectionGrid: withdrawal monotonicity along confidence axis" {
     const horizons = [_]u16{30};
     const conf = [_]f64{ 0.90, 0.95, 0.99 };
 
-    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
+    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0);
     defer freeProjectionData(allocator, data);
 
     const w_90 = data.withdrawals[0 * horizons.len + 0].annual_amount;
@@ -3181,7 +3030,7 @@ test "runProjectionGrid: withdrawal monotonicity along horizon axis" {
     const horizons = [_]u16{ 20, 30, 45 };
     const conf = [_]f64{0.95};
 
-    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
+    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0);
     defer freeProjectionData(allocator, data);
 
     const w_20 = data.withdrawals[0 * horizons.len + 0].annual_amount;
@@ -3196,7 +3045,7 @@ test "runProjectionGrid: distribution-only band length is horizon + 1" {
     const horizons = [_]u16{ 20, 30 };
     const conf = [_]f64{ 0.95, 0.99 };
 
-    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
+    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0);
     defer freeProjectionData(allocator, data);
 
     // band[0] covers horizons[0] = 20 -> 21 entries; band[1] covers
@@ -3211,7 +3060,7 @@ test "runProjectionGrid: with-accumulation band length includes accumulation_yea
     const conf = [_]f64{0.95};
 
     // 10 years of accumulation + 30 years distribution -> 41 entries.
-    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 10, 50_000, true, 0, 0);
+    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 10, 50_000, true, 0);
     defer freeProjectionData(allocator, data);
 
     try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(usize, 41), data.bands[0].?.len);
@@ -3222,7 +3071,7 @@ test "runProjectionGrid: bands are p10 ≤ p25 ≤ p50 ≤ p75 ≤ p90 at every
     const horizons = [_]u16{30};
     const conf = [_]f64{0.95};
 
-    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
+    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0);
     defer freeProjectionData(allocator, data);
 
     for (data.bands[0].?) |b| {
@@ -3239,7 +3088,7 @@ test "runProjectionGrid: year 0 in every band equals total_value" {
     const conf = [_]f64{0.95};
 
     const total_value: f64 = 2_000_000;
-    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, total_value, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
+    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, total_value, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0);
     defer freeProjectionData(allocator, data);
 
     for (data.bands) |b_opt| {
@@ -3263,7 +3112,7 @@ test "runProjectionGrid: bands are computed at the highest-confidence withdrawal
     const horizons = [_]u16{30};
     const conf = [_]f64{ 0.90, 0.95, 0.99 };
 
-    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
+    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0);
     defer freeProjectionData(allocator, data);
 
     const wr_99 = data.withdrawals[data.ci_99 * horizons.len + 0];
@@ -3295,10 +3144,10 @@ test "runProjectionGrid: accumulation passes through to both withdrawals and ban
     const horizons = [_]u16{30};
     const conf = [_]f64{0.95};
 
-    const dist_only = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
+    const dist_only = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0);
     defer freeProjectionData(allocator, dist_only);
 
-    const with_accum = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 10, 50_000, true, 0, 0);
+    const with_accum = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 10, 50_000, true, 0);
     defer freeProjectionData(allocator, with_accum);
 
     // SWR with 10y of contributions on top should exceed SWR
@@ -3314,173 +3163,9 @@ test "runProjectionGrid: zero horizons produces empty results without crashing"
     const horizons = [_]u16{};
     const conf = [_]f64{ 0.95, 0.99 };
 
-    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
+    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0);
     defer freeProjectionData(allocator, data);
 
     try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(usize, 0), data.withdrawals.len);
     try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(usize, 0), data.bands.len);
 }
-
-// ── Spending-drift (the "smile") tests ─────────────────────────
-
-test "spending_real_change: declining spending raises safe withdrawal, rising lowers it" {
-    // Same portfolio, horizon, and confidence - only the spending
-    // trajectory differs. Spending less in the slow-go years frees up
-    // a higher first-year draw; spending more requires a lower one.
-    const flat = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
-    const declining = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, -0.02);
-    const rising = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0.02);
-    try std.testing.expect(declining.annual_amount > flat.annual_amount);
-    try std.testing.expect(rising.annual_amount < flat.annual_amount);
-}
-
-test "spending_real_change: zero drift is identical to the flat model" {
-    // The default (rate 0) must reproduce the pre-smile behavior
-    // exactly - the regression pin for every existing projection.
-    const flat = findSafeWithdrawal(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{});
-    const zero_drift = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
-    try std.testing.expectEqual(flat.annual_amount, zero_drift.annual_amount);
-}
-
-test "spendingTrough: monotonic decline bottoms out in the final year" {
-    const as_of = Date.fromYmd(2026, 1, 1);
-    const t = spendingTrough(60_000, -0.02, &.{}, 0, 30, as_of).?;
-    // No events -> spending falls every year -> trough is the last
-    // distribution year (d = 29).
-    try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(u16, 29), t.year_offset);
-    try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(u16, 30), t.years_from_now);
-    const expected = 60_000.0 * std.math.pow(f64, 0.98, 29);
-    try std.testing.expectApproxEqAbs(expected, t.amount, 1.0);
-    try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(i16, 2055), t.date.year());
-}
-
-test "spendingTrough: a late healthcare expense pulls the trough to mid-retirement" {
-    const as_of = Date.fromYmd(2026, 1, 1);
-    // Base spending declines 2%/yr; a permanent +$40k/yr healthcare
-    // expense begins at distribution year 20. Spending slides until
-    // then, then jumps - so the trough is the year just before the
-    // hump (d = 19), not the final year. This is the whole reason the
-    // trough is computed rather than read off the last year.
-    const healthcare = [_]ResolvedEvent{.{
-        .start_year = 20,
-        .duration = 0,
-        .annual_amount = -40_000,
-        .inflation_adjusted = true,
-    }};
-    const t = spendingTrough(60_000, -0.02, &healthcare, 0, 30, as_of).?;
-    try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(u16, 19), t.year_offset);
-}
-
-test "spendingTrough: rising spending bottoms out in the first year" {
-    const as_of = Date.fromYmd(2026, 1, 1);
-    const t = spendingTrough(50_000, 0.01, &.{}, 0, 30, as_of).?;
-    try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(u16, 0), t.year_offset);
-    try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(u16, 1), t.years_from_now);
-    try std.testing.expectApproxEqAbs(@as(f64, 50_000), t.amount, 0.01);
-}
-
-test "spendingTrough: income events do not count as spending" {
-    const as_of = Date.fromYmd(2026, 1, 1);
-    // A Social Security income event funds withdrawals but is not
-    // consumption, so it must not lower the reported spending trough.
-    const ss = [_]ResolvedEvent{.{
-        .start_year = 5,
-        .duration = 0,
-        .annual_amount = 30_000, // positive = income
-        .inflation_adjusted = true,
-    }};
-    const with_income = spendingTrough(60_000, -0.02, &ss, 0, 30, as_of).?;
-    const without = spendingTrough(60_000, -0.02, &.{}, 0, 30, as_of).?;
-    try std.testing.expectEqual(without.amount, with_income.amount);
-    try std.testing.expectEqual(without.year_offset, with_income.year_offset);
-}
-
-test "spendingTrough: accumulation phase offsets the trough year and date" {
-    const as_of = Date.fromYmd(2026, 1, 1);
-    // 10 accumulation years, then 20 distribution years declining
-    // 1%/yr. Trough at the last distribution year (d = 19);
-    // years_from_now = 10 + 19 + 1 = 30; calendar 2026 + 29 = 2055.
-    const t = spendingTrough(50_000, -0.01, &.{}, 10, 20, as_of).?;
-    try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(u16, 19), t.year_offset);
-    try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(u16, 30), t.years_from_now);
-    try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(i16, 2055), t.date.year());
-}
-
-test "spendingTrough: zero distribution years returns null" {
-    const as_of = Date.fromYmd(2026, 1, 1);
-    try std.testing.expectEqual(
-        @as(?SpendingTrough, null),
-        spendingTrough(60_000, -0.02, &.{}, 0, 0, as_of),
-    );
-}
-
-test "parseProjectionsConfig spending_change negative is a decline" {
-    const config = parseProjectionsConfig("#!srfv1\ntype::config,spending_change:num:-2\n");
-    try std.testing.expectApproxEqAbs(@as(f64, -0.02), config.spending_real_change.?, 1e-9);
-}
-
-test "parseProjectionsConfig spending_change positive is a rise" {
-    const config = parseProjectionsConfig("#!srfv1\ntype::config,spending_change:num:1\n");
-    try std.testing.expectApproxEqAbs(@as(f64, 0.01), config.spending_real_change.?, 1e-9);
-}
-
-test "parseProjectionsConfig spending_change absent stays null (flat)" {
-    const config = parseProjectionsConfig("#!srfv1\ntype::config,horizon:num:30\n");
-    try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(?f64, null), config.spending_real_change);
-}
-
-test "parseProjectionsConfig spending_change magnitude is clamped both directions" {
-    const hi = parseProjectionsConfig("#!srfv1\ntype::config,spending_change:num:50\n");
-    try std.testing.expectApproxEqAbs(max_abs_spending_real_change, hi.spending_real_change.?, 1e-9);
-    const lo = parseProjectionsConfig("#!srfv1\ntype::config,spending_change:num:-50\n");
-    try std.testing.expectApproxEqAbs(-max_abs_spending_real_change, lo.spending_real_change.?, 1e-9);
-}
-
-test "integration: declining model + late healthcare troughs mid-retirement" {
-    // Mirrors the shipped `examples/post-retirement-smile` config
-    // (keep the two in sync). Exercises the full path - parse the
-    // signed-percent drift, resolve the life events, and compute the
-    // trough. Composing the 2%/yr decline with the age-80 healthcare
-    // expense must put the spending trough in mid-retirement (the
-    // year just before the expense begins), not at the final
-    // distribution year - the whole reason the trough is searched for
-    // rather than read off the last year. (The shipped example file
-    // itself is validated by running the binary against it; @embedFile
-    // can't reach outside src/.)
-    const cfg =
-        \\#!srfv1
-        \\type::config,target_stock_pct:num:60
-        \\type::config,spending_change:num:-2
-        \\type::config,horizon:num:30
-        \\type::birthdate,date::1958-02-19
-        \\type::birthdate,date::1961-07-04,person:num:2
-        \\type::event,name::Social Security (Robin),start_age:num:67,person:num:1,amount:num:34800
-        \\type::event,name::Healthcare (late-life),start_age:num:80,person:num:1,amount:num:-55000
-    ;
-    const config = parseProjectionsConfig(cfg);
-
-    // -2 whole percent -> -0.02 fraction.
-    try std.testing.expectApproxEqAbs(@as(f64, -0.02), config.spending_real_change.?, 1e-9);
-
-    // Resolve the life events against a fixed reference date (not
-    // "today" - tests must be deterministic).
-    const as_of = Date.fromYmd(2026, 6, 26);
-    const resolved = config.resolveEvents(as_of);
-    const events = resolved[0..config.event_count];
-
-    // Find the resolved start year of the lone expense event (the
-    // late-life healthcare bump).
-    var hc_start: ?u16 = null;
-    for (events) |ev| {
-        if (ev.annual_amount < 0) hc_start = ev.start_year;
-    }
-    try std.testing.expect(hc_start != null);
-
-    const dist_years: u16 = 30;
-    const t = spendingTrough(150_000, config.spending_real_change.?, events, 0, dist_years, as_of).?;
-
-    // Trough is the year just before healthcare starts...
-    try std.testing.expectEqual(hc_start.? - 1, t.year_offset);
-    // ...which is strictly before the final distribution year.
-    try std.testing.expect(t.year_offset < dist_years - 1);
-}

src/commands/projections.zig

@@ -957,19 +957,6 @@ pub fn runBands(
         try cli.printFg(out, color, cli.CLR_MUTED, "  {s}\n", .{note});
     }
 
-    // Spending trough: when a declining/rising spending model is
-    // active, surface the lowest-spending year in today's dollars.
-    // It accounts for expense life events (e.g. a late-life
-    // healthcare hump), so it can land mid-retirement rather than at
-    // the final year.
-    if (ctx.spending_trough) |trough| {
-        try cli.printFg(out, color, cli.CLR_MUTED, "  Lowest spending: {f} in year {d} ({d}), today's dollars\n", .{
-            Money.from(trough.amount).whole(),
-            trough.years_from_now,
-            trough.date.year(),
-        });
-    }
-
     // Life events summary - both as-of and live modes resolve ages
     // against the reference date (`resolution.actual` if a snapshot
     // was loaded, otherwise `as_of` directly).

src/market.zig

@@ -315,26 +315,6 @@ pub fn candleFreshness(now_s: i64, kind: InstrumentKind, last_cached: Date) Cand
     return .overdue;
 }
 
-/// Whether a candle fetch is warranted for `kind` as of `now_s`, given
-/// `last_cached` (the newest bar already in the cache). True when a
-/// newer bar is due (`candleFreshness` is `.lagging` or `.overdue`);
-/// false when the cache already holds the latest *available* bar - a
-/// weekend/holiday/pre-close gap, or genuinely caught up - so the caller
-/// should just bump the TTL to the next boundary without hitting the
-/// network.
-///
-/// This is the market-aware gate for getCandles' "do I need to fetch?"
-/// decision. It deliberately shares `candleFreshness`'s availability
-/// math so the fetch decision and the lag report cannot disagree. A
-/// naive `last_cached + 1 >= today` calendar check would skip the fetch
-/// for a just-closed session whose bar is due (last_cached == yesterday)
-/// while `candleFreshness` simultaneously flagged it `.lagging`, freezing
-/// the cache on the stale bar until the next boundary. Pure given
-/// `now_s`, so it is fully deterministic for tests.
-pub fn shouldRefresh(now_s: i64, kind: InstrumentKind, last_cached: Date) bool {
-    return candleFreshness(now_s, kind, last_cached) != .current;
-}
-
 /// Expiry to stamp on candle meta after an *incremental* fetch on a
 /// stale entry returned zero new bars. Maps `candleFreshness` to a
 /// boundary: a `.lagging` bar retries soon (`short_retry_s`); `.current`
@@ -757,41 +737,6 @@ test "candleFreshness mutual_fund: late NAV is lagging" {
     try testing.expectEqual(CandleFreshness.current, candleFreshness(now, .mutual_fund, Date.fromYmd(2025, 6, 16)));
 }
 
-test "shouldRefresh equity: just-closed session with only yesterday's bar -> refresh" {
-    // Fri 2025-06-13, 17:00 ET: Friday's bar is due (past the 16:55
-    // boundary) but the cache only holds Thursday 06-12. The old naive
-    // `last_cached + 1 >= today` check skipped this fetch and froze the
-    // cache until Monday; shouldRefresh must say yes.
-    const now = etLocalToUtc(Date.fromYmd(2025, 6, 13), 17 * std.time.s_per_hour);
-    try testing.expect(shouldRefresh(now, .equity, Date.fromYmd(2025, 6, 12)));
-}
-
-test "shouldRefresh equity: already holding the just-closed bar -> no refresh" {
-    const now = etLocalToUtc(Date.fromYmd(2025, 6, 13), 17 * std.time.s_per_hour);
-    try testing.expect(!shouldRefresh(now, .equity, Date.fromYmd(2025, 6, 13)));
-}
-
-test "shouldRefresh equity: pre-close, yesterday's bar is still the latest -> no refresh" {
-    // Fri 2025-06-13, 10:00 ET: before the 16:55 boundary, Thursday's bar
-    // is still the latest available. (The case the old check got right.)
-    const now = etLocalToUtc(Date.fromYmd(2025, 6, 13), 10 * std.time.s_per_hour);
-    try testing.expect(!shouldRefresh(now, .equity, Date.fromYmd(2025, 6, 12)));
-}
-
-test "shouldRefresh equity: weekend gap holding Friday's bar -> no refresh" {
-    // Sun 2025-06-15: nothing newer than Friday is due over the weekend,
-    // so no wasteful fetch (the old calendar check would have fetched).
-    const now = etLocalToUtc(Date.fromYmd(2025, 6, 15), 12 * std.time.s_per_hour);
-    try testing.expect(!shouldRefresh(now, .equity, Date.fromYmd(2025, 6, 13)));
-}
-
-test "shouldRefresh mutual_fund: weekend morning holding latest NAV -> no refresh" {
-    // Sat 2025-06-14, 05:00 ET: Friday's NAV (data_date 06-13) posted this
-    // morning; holding it means nothing newer is due.
-    const now = etLocalToUtc(Date.fromYmd(2025, 6, 14), 5 * std.time.s_per_hour);
-    try testing.expect(!shouldRefresh(now, .mutual_fund, Date.fromYmd(2025, 6, 13)));
-}
-
 test "fmtClockET: 12-hour rendering with EST/EDT and AM/PM" {
     var buf: [16]u8 = undefined;
     // Afternoon (EST, winter): 14:34 ET.

src/service.zig

@@ -809,18 +809,8 @@ pub const DataService = struct {
                 // this stale path (next post-close / NAV-availability time).
                 const expires = market.nextCandleExpiry(now_s, kind);
 
-                // Only skip the fetch when we already hold the latest
+                // If last cached date is today or later, just refresh the TTL (meta only)
-                // *available* bar (weekend/holiday/pre-close gap, or
+                if (!fetch_from.lessThan(today)) {
-                // caught up): just bump the TTL. Gating on the
-                // market-aware `shouldRefresh` -- not a naive
-                // `last_cached + 1 >= today` calendar check -- keeps this
-                // decision consistent with the `candleFreshness` lag
-                // report. The old calendar check skipped the fetch when
-                // `last_date` was merely yesterday, so a just-closed
-                // session's due bar got cached as "fresh" until the next
-                // boundary while the lag check reported it lagging (the
-                // Friday-17:00 deadlock that exited 75 every retry).
-                if (!market.shouldRefresh(now_s, kind, m.last_date)) {
                     s.updateCandleMeta(symbol, m.last_close, m.last_date, m.provider, m.fail_count, expires);
                     if (s.read(self.allocator, Candle, symbol, null, .any)) |r|
                         return .{ .data = r.data, .source = .cached, .timestamp = std.Io.Timestamp.now(self.io, .real).toSeconds(), .allocator = self.allocator };
@@ -944,38 +934,10 @@ pub const DataService = struct {
         return self.fetchCached(OptionsChain, symbol, null, opts);
     }
 
-    /// Days after an earnings report date during which a still-missing
-    /// `actual` is worth chasing with a re-fetch. Past this window the
-    /// gap is treated as permanent (FMP won't backfill it; earnings has
-    /// no secondary source), so the cache is honored until its TTL.
-    const earnings_actual_chase_days: i32 = 14;
-
-    /// Whether a fresh-in-cache earnings set warrants a re-fetch: true
-    /// when an event whose report date has arrived (date <= today) is
-    /// still missing its `actual` AND the report is recent enough
-    /// (within `window_days`) that the actual could still post.
-    ///
-    /// Earnings has no cross-provider backfill (unlike dividends/splits,
-    /// which Tiingo supplements via the candle fetch), so a missing
-    /// actual only arrives through a later FMP fetch. Without the recency
-    /// bound a permanently-incomplete past row -- e.g. SPY's 2005-2006
-    /// estimate-only rows FMP never backfills -- forces a re-fetch every
-    /// run. The 30-day TTL backstops any actual slower than the window.
-    fn earningsNeedsRefresh(events: []const EarningsEvent, today: Date, window_days: i32) bool {
-        for (events) |ev| {
-            if (ev.actual == null and !today.lessThan(ev.date) and today.days - ev.date.days <= window_days) {
-                return true;
-            }
-        }
-        return false;
-    }
-
     /// Fetch earnings history for a symbol.
     /// Checks cache first; fetches from FMP if stale/missing.
-    /// Smart refresh: even if cache is fresh, re-fetches when a *recent*
+    /// Smart refresh: even if cache is fresh, re-fetches when a past earnings
-    /// past earnings date (within `earnings_actual_chase_days`) still has
+    /// date has no actual results yet (i.e. results just came out).
-    /// no actual yet (results just came out). Older gaps are treated as
-    /// permanent and honored until TTL -- see `earningsNeedsRefresh`.
     ///
     /// `opts.skip_network = true` -> returns cached data even if stale,
     /// returns FetchFailed on cache miss without touching the network.
@@ -991,12 +953,12 @@ pub const DataService = struct {
 
         if (!opts.force_refresh) {
             if (s.read(self.allocator, EarningsEvent, symbol, earningsPostProcess, .fresh_only)) |cached| {
-                // Re-fetch only when a recent report (within the chase
+                // Check if any past/today earnings event is still missing actual results.
-                // window) is still missing its actual; older gaps never
+                // If so, the announcement likely just happened - force a refresh.
-                // backfill, so honor the cache. Suppressed under
+                // (Suppressed when opts.skip_network - offline mode never refetches.)
-                // skip_network (offline mode never refetches).
+                const needs_refresh = if (opts.skip_network) false else for (cached.data) |ev| {
-                const needs_refresh = !opts.skip_network and
+                    if (ev.actual == null and !today.lessThan(ev.date)) break true;
-                    earningsNeedsRefresh(cached.data, today, earnings_actual_chase_days);
+                } else false;
 
                 if (!needs_refresh) {
                     log.debug("{s}: earnings fresh in local cache", .{symbol});
@@ -4410,47 +4372,3 @@ test "getEtfProfile: carries holding CUSIP through the model boundary" {
     try std.testing.expectEqualStrings("999999999", holdings[0].cusip orelse return error.NoCusip);
     try std.testing.expect(holdings[0].symbol == null); // filing had no ticker
 }
-
-test "earningsNeedsRefresh: recent missing actual triggers a re-fetch" {
-    const today = Date.fromYmd(2026, 6, 26);
-    const events = [_]EarningsEvent{
-        .{ .date = Date.fromYmd(2026, 6, 20), .estimate = 1.0 }, // 6 days ago, actual not posted yet
-    };
-    try std.testing.expect(DataService.earningsNeedsRefresh(&events, today, 14));
-}
-
-test "earningsNeedsRefresh: stale missing actual is NOT chased (the SPY case)" {
-    const today = Date.fromYmd(2026, 6, 26);
-    const events = [_]EarningsEvent{
-        .{ .date = Date.fromYmd(2006, 5, 15), .estimate = 2.11 }, // ~20y old, FMP never backfills
-        .{ .date = Date.fromYmd(2005, 2, 15), .actual = 1.81 },
-    };
-    try std.testing.expect(!DataService.earningsNeedsRefresh(&events, today, 14));
-}
-
-test "earningsNeedsRefresh: all actuals present -> no re-fetch" {
-    const today = Date.fromYmd(2026, 6, 26);
-    const events = [_]EarningsEvent{
-        .{ .date = Date.fromYmd(2026, 5, 20), .actual = 1.5 },
-        .{ .date = Date.fromYmd(2026, 2, 20), .actual = 1.2 },
-    };
-    try std.testing.expect(!DataService.earningsNeedsRefresh(&events, today, 14));
-}
-
-test "earningsNeedsRefresh: upcoming event without actual does not trigger" {
-    const today = Date.fromYmd(2026, 6, 26);
-    const events = [_]EarningsEvent{
-        .{ .date = Date.fromYmd(2026, 8, 26), .estimate = 2.0 }, // future report, no actual yet
-    };
-    try std.testing.expect(!DataService.earningsNeedsRefresh(&events, today, 14));
-}
-
-test "earningsNeedsRefresh: chase window is inclusive at the boundary" {
-    const today = Date.fromYmd(2026, 6, 26);
-    // Exactly 14 days ago -> still chased.
-    const at_window = [_]EarningsEvent{.{ .date = Date.fromYmd(2026, 6, 12), .estimate = 1.0 }};
-    try std.testing.expect(DataService.earningsNeedsRefresh(&at_window, today, 14));
-    // 15 days ago -> past the window, left alone.
-    const past_window = [_]EarningsEvent{.{ .date = Date.fromYmd(2026, 6, 11), .estimate = 1.0 }};
-    try std.testing.expect(!DataService.earningsNeedsRefresh(&past_window, today, 14));
-}

src/tui/projections_tab.zig

@@ -1279,18 +1279,6 @@ fn appendSwrTable(
             .style = th.mutedStyle(),
         });
     }
-
-    // Spending trough callout (declining/rising spending models only).
-    if (pctx.spending_trough) |trough| {
-        try lines.append(arena, .{
-            .text = try std.fmt.allocPrint(arena, "  Lowest spending: {f} in year {d} ({d}), today's dollars", .{
-                Money.from(trough.amount).whole(),
-                trough.years_from_now,
-                trough.date.year(),
-            }),
-            .style = th.mutedStyle(),
-        });
-    }
 }
 
 fn appendEventSummary(lines: *std.ArrayListUnmanaged(StyledLine), as_of: zfin.Date, arena: std.mem.Allocator, th: theme.Theme, pctx: view.ProjectionContext) !void {

src/views/projections.zig

@@ -174,12 +174,6 @@ pub const ProjectionContext = struct {
     /// Drives the header note ("As-of: ... (snapshot)" vs "(imported)")
     /// so users know how literal the bands are.
     as_of_source: AsOfSource = .live,
-    /// Lowest-spending year of the headline cell's distribution phase
-    /// (longest horizon at the highest confidence), in today's
-    /// dollars. Populated only when a `spending_change` is configured
-    /// - the callout is meaningless for flat spending. `null`
-    /// otherwise (and in the degenerate zero-horizon case).
-    spending_trough: ?projections.SpendingTrough = null,
 };
 
 pub const AsOfSource = enum { live, snapshot, imported };
@@ -341,7 +335,6 @@ pub fn buildProjectionContext(
         config.annual_contribution,
         config.contribution_inflation_adjusted,
         sim_expense_ratio,
-        config.spending_real_change orelse 0,
     );
 
     // Accumulation-phase stats: extract portfolio value at the
@@ -390,7 +383,6 @@ pub fn buildProjectionContext(
                     events,
                     config.max_accumulation_years,
                     sim_expense_ratio,
-                    config.spending_real_change orelse 0,
                 );
             }
         }
@@ -461,28 +453,6 @@ pub fn buildProjectionContext(
         }
     }
 
-    // Spending trough: lowest-spending year of the headline cell
-    // (longest horizon, highest confidence). Surfaced only when a
-    // spending drift is configured. Anchored to the same
-    // `accumulation_years` the grid was computed with, so it lines up
-    // with the "retire now, 1st-year withdrawal" headline.
-    var spending_trough: ?projections.SpendingTrough = null;
-    if (config.spending_real_change) |rate| {
-        const trough_horizons = config.getHorizons();
-        if (trough_horizons.len > 0) {
-            const longest = trough_horizons.len - 1;
-            const swr = data.withdrawals[data.ci_99 * trough_horizons.len + longest];
-            spending_trough = projections.spendingTrough(
-                swr.annual_amount,
-                rate,
-                events,
-                accumulation_years,
-                trough_horizons[longest],
-                as_of,
-            );
-        }
-    }
-
     return .{
         .comparison = comparison,
         .config = config,
@@ -494,7 +464,6 @@ pub fn buildProjectionContext(
         .accumulation = accumulation_stats,
         .earliest = earliest,
         .inputs = inputs,
-        .spending_trough = spending_trough,
     };
 }