projections: suppress output of percentage data when accumulation mode exists

TODO.md

@@ -10,18 +10,6 @@ ranking; unlabeled items are "someday, if the mood strikes."
 - **Configurable return cap per position — priority MEDIUM.**
   Default: none; cap outliers like NVDA. Should route through
   `projections.srf` cleanly.
-- **Accumulation-mode SWR rate column is misleading — priority LOW.**
-  When `retirement_age`/`retirement_at` is configured, the "Safe
-  Withdrawal" table's % column divides the SWR amount by the
-  CURRENT portfolio value, not the post-accumulation portfolio
-  value. The dollar amount is correct (it's the safe spending in
-  retirement, given the projected accumulation), but the % rate
-  comes out absurdly high (e.g., 22% of today's portfolio). The
-  Accumulation phase block already shows the median portfolio at
-  retirement, so the user can compute the real rate themselves —
-  but the SWR table's rate column should ideally divide by the
-  median post-accumulation value, or be suppressed when accumulation
-  is active. Decide which.
 - **Chart vertical line at retirement boundary — priority LOW.**
   The accumulation-phase spec called this "mandatory" but it was
   explicitly deferred during implementation. The chart currently

src/commands/projections.zig

@@ -790,11 +790,20 @@ pub fn runBands(
     // Header row
     try out.print("{s}\n", .{try view.buildHeaderRow(va, horizons, view.withdrawal_col_width)});
 
-    // Withdrawal rows
+    // Withdrawal rows. When an accumulation phase is active the
+    // per-row % rate is suppressed (it would divide today's-dollars
+    // retirement spending by today's portfolio); a footnote explains
+    // and points at the Accumulation phase block.
+    const swr_rate_note = view.swrRateNote(ctx.retirement.accumulation_years);
     for (confidence_levels, 0..) |conf, ci| {
         const wr_rows = try view.buildWithdrawalRows(va, conf, horizons, ctx.data.withdrawals, ci);
         try out.print("{s}\n", .{wr_rows.amount.text});
-        try cli.printFg(out, color, cli.CLR_MUTED, "{s}\n", .{wr_rows.rate.text});
+        if (swr_rate_note == null) {
+            try cli.printFg(out, color, cli.CLR_MUTED, "{s}\n", .{wr_rows.rate.text});
+        }
+    }
+    if (swr_rate_note) |note| {
+        try cli.printFg(out, color, cli.CLR_MUTED, "  {s}\n", .{note});
     }
 
     // Life events summary — both as-of and live modes resolve ages

src/tui/projections_tab.zig

@@ -1223,6 +1223,28 @@ fn buildFooterSection(app: *App, arena: std.mem.Allocator, lines: *std.ArrayList
     }
 
     // Safe withdrawal table
+    try appendSwrTable(lines, arena, th, pctx);
+
+    // Life events summary
+    try appendEventSummary(lines, app.today, arena, th, pctx);
+}
+
+/// Append the "Safe Withdrawal" table (header + per-confidence
+/// amount/rate rows) to a styled-lines list. Shared by the chart and
+/// no-chart render paths so they can't drift.
+///
+/// During an accumulation phase the per-row % rate is suppressed and
+/// replaced with a single footnote: dividing today's-dollars
+/// retirement spending by today's portfolio yields a misleading rate.
+/// See `view.swrRateNote`.
+fn appendSwrTable(
+    lines: *std.ArrayListUnmanaged(StyledLine),
+    arena: std.mem.Allocator,
+    th: theme.Theme,
+    pctx: view.ProjectionContext,
+) !void {
+    const horizons = pctx.config.getHorizons();
+
     try lines.append(arena, .{ .text = "", .style = th.contentStyle() });
     try lines.append(arena, .{
         .text = "  Safe Withdrawal (FIRECalc historical simulation)",
@@ -1236,21 +1258,27 @@ fn buildFooterSection(app: *App, arena: std.mem.Allocator, lines: *std.ArrayList
     });
 
     const cached_wr = pctx.data.withdrawals;
-    const confidence_levels = config.getConfidenceLevels();
+    const confidence_levels = pctx.config.getConfidenceLevels();
+    const rate_note = view.swrRateNote(pctx.retirement.accumulation_years);
     for (confidence_levels, 0..) |conf, ci| {
         const rows = try view.buildWithdrawalRows(arena, conf, horizons, cached_wr, ci);
         try lines.append(arena, .{
             .text = try std.fmt.allocPrint(arena, "  {s}", .{rows.amount.text}),
             .style = th.contentStyle(),
         });
+        if (rate_note == null) {
+            try lines.append(arena, .{
+                .text = try std.fmt.allocPrint(arena, "  {s}", .{rows.rate.text}),
+                .style = th.mutedStyle(),
+            });
+        }
+    }
+    if (rate_note) |note| {
         try lines.append(arena, .{
-            .text = try std.fmt.allocPrint(arena, "  {s}", .{rows.rate.text}),
+            .text = try std.fmt.allocPrint(arena, "  {s}", .{note}),
             .style = th.mutedStyle(),
         });
     }
-
-    // Life events summary
-    try appendEventSummary(lines, app.today, arena, th, pctx);
 }
 
 fn appendEventSummary(lines: *std.ArrayListUnmanaged(StyledLine), as_of: zfin.Date, arena: std.mem.Allocator, th: theme.Theme, pctx: view.ProjectionContext) !void {
@@ -2065,31 +2093,7 @@ fn buildLines(state: *State, app: *App, arena: std.mem.Allocator) ![]const Style
     }
 
     // Safe withdrawal table
-    try lines.append(arena, .{ .text = "", .style = th.contentStyle() });
+    try appendSwrTable(&lines, arena, th, ctx);
-    try lines.append(arena, .{
-        .text = "  Safe Withdrawal (FIRECalc historical simulation)",
-        .style = th.headerStyle(),
-    });
-    try lines.append(arena, .{ .text = "", .style = th.contentStyle() });
-
-    try lines.append(arena, .{
-        .text = try std.fmt.allocPrint(arena, "  {s}", .{try view.buildHeaderRow(arena, horizons, view.withdrawal_col_width)}),
-        .style = th.headerStyle(),
-    });
-
-    const cached_wr = ctx.data.withdrawals;
-    const confidence_levels = config.getConfidenceLevels();
-    for (confidence_levels, 0..) |conf, ci| {
-        const rows = try view.buildWithdrawalRows(arena, conf, horizons, cached_wr, ci);
-        try lines.append(arena, .{
-            .text = try std.fmt.allocPrint(arena, "  {s}", .{rows.amount.text}),
-            .style = th.contentStyle(),
-        });
-        try lines.append(arena, .{
-            .text = try std.fmt.allocPrint(arena, "  {s}", .{rows.rate.text}),
-            .style = th.mutedStyle(),
-        });
-    }
 
     // Life events summary (at the bottom)
     try appendEventSummary(&lines, app.today, arena, th, ctx);
@@ -2196,3 +2200,107 @@ test "formatOverlayUnavailable: respects rebound as-of-input key" {
     const msg = try formatOverlayUnavailable(&buf, "ctrl+d");
     try testing.expectEqualStrings("Overlay only available with --as-of (press ctrl+d to set)", msg);
 }
+
+/// Build a `ProjectionContext` for the SWR-table tests. Runs the real
+/// (network-free) historical simulation via `view.buildProjectionContext`
+/// so `data.withdrawals` is populated. `retirement_at == null` yields a
+/// distribution-only context (accumulation_years == 0); a future date
+/// yields an accumulation phase.
+fn buildSwrTestCtx(
+    arena: std.mem.Allocator,
+    retirement_at: ?zfin.Date,
+    annual_contribution: f64,
+    as_of: zfin.Date,
+) !view.ProjectionContext {
+    const benchmark = @import("../analytics/benchmark.zig");
+    const projections = @import("../analytics/projections.zig");
+    var config: projections.UserConfig = .{};
+    config.retirement_at = retirement_at;
+    config.annual_contribution = annual_contribution;
+    const comparison: benchmark.BenchmarkComparison = .{
+        .stock_returns = .{},
+        .bond_returns = .{},
+        .benchmark_returns = .{},
+        .portfolio_returns = .{},
+        .conservative_return = 0.07,
+        .stock_pct = 0.75,
+        .bond_pct = 0.25,
+    };
+    return view.buildProjectionContext(arena, config, comparison, 0.75, 0.25, 1_000_000, &.{}, as_of);
+}
+
+/// Tallies of the line kinds `appendSwrTable` emits, used by the SWR
+/// table tests. Each emitted line is exactly one kind:
+///   - `header`:   the "Safe Withdrawal (...)" title line.
+///   - `amount`:   a "NN% safe withdrawal   $X  $Y ..." row.
+///   - `rate`:     a bare numeric percentage row (rendered only when
+///                 there is no accumulation phase).
+///   - `footnote`: the "% rate omitted during accumulation ..." note.
+const SwrLineCounts = struct {
+    headers: usize = 0,
+    amounts: usize = 0,
+    rates: usize = 0,
+    footnotes: usize = 0,
+};
+
+fn classifySwrLines(lines: []const StyledLine) SwrLineCounts {
+    var c: SwrLineCounts = .{};
+    for (lines) |line| {
+        if (std.mem.indexOf(u8, line.text, "Safe Withdrawal") != null) {
+            // Title line ("Safe Withdrawal (FIRECalc ...)").
+            c.headers += 1;
+        } else if (std.mem.indexOf(u8, line.text, "omitted") != null) {
+            // Suppression footnote.
+            c.footnotes += 1;
+        } else if (std.mem.indexOf(u8, line.text, "safe withdrawal") != null) {
+            // Amount row: the "NN% safe withdrawal" label carries a
+            // '%', so it must be matched before the bare-'%' rate case.
+            c.amounts += 1;
+        } else if (std.mem.indexOfScalar(u8, line.text, '%') != null) {
+            // Numeric percentage row.
+            c.rates += 1;
+        }
+    }
+    return c;
+}
+
+test "appendSwrTable: distribution-only renders a rate row per confidence, no footnote" {
+    var arena = std.heap.ArenaAllocator.init(std.testing.allocator);
+    defer arena.deinit();
+    const a = arena.allocator();
+
+    const ctx = try buildSwrTestCtx(a, null, 0, zfin.Date.fromYmd(2026, 5, 12));
+    try testing.expectEqual(@as(u16, 0), ctx.retirement.accumulation_years);
+
+    var lines: std.ArrayListUnmanaged(StyledLine) = .empty;
+    try appendSwrTable(&lines, a, theme.default_theme, ctx);
+
+    const n_conf = ctx.config.getConfidenceLevels().len;
+    const counts = classifySwrLines(lines.items);
+    try testing.expectEqual(@as(usize, 1), counts.headers);
+    try testing.expectEqual(@as(usize, 0), counts.footnotes);
+    // One amount row and one rate row per confidence level.
+    try testing.expectEqual(n_conf, counts.amounts);
+    try testing.expectEqual(n_conf, counts.rates);
+}
+
+test "appendSwrTable: accumulation suppresses rate rows and adds one footnote" {
+    var arena = std.heap.ArenaAllocator.init(std.testing.allocator);
+    defer arena.deinit();
+    const a = arena.allocator();
+
+    // Retire 10 years out with contributions -> non-zero accumulation.
+    const ctx = try buildSwrTestCtx(a, zfin.Date.fromYmd(2036, 7, 1), 50_000, zfin.Date.fromYmd(2026, 7, 1));
+    try testing.expect(ctx.retirement.accumulation_years > 0);
+
+    var lines: std.ArrayListUnmanaged(StyledLine) = .empty;
+    try appendSwrTable(&lines, a, theme.default_theme, ctx);
+
+    const n_conf = ctx.config.getConfidenceLevels().len;
+    const counts = classifySwrLines(lines.items);
+    // Amounts still render; the per-row rate is gone, replaced by a
+    // single footnote.
+    try testing.expectEqual(n_conf, counts.amounts);
+    try testing.expectEqual(@as(usize, 0), counts.rates);
+    try testing.expectEqual(@as(usize, 1), counts.footnotes);
+}

src/views/projections.zig

@@ -1067,6 +1067,34 @@ pub fn buildWithdrawalRows(
     };
 }
 
+/// Footnote shown beneath the Safe Withdrawal table when the
+/// projection includes an accumulation phase. Returns `null` (render
+/// the rate rows normally) when `accumulation_years == 0`.
+///
+/// Why the rate is suppressed during accumulation: `WithdrawalResult.
+/// withdrawal_rate` is `annual_amount / initial_value`, and
+/// `initial_value` is the *current* portfolio. With an accumulation
+/// phase the `annual_amount` is the safe spending sized for the
+/// projected *post-accumulation* portfolio, so dividing it by today's
+/// (much smaller) portfolio yields an absurdly high "rate" (e.g. 22%
+/// of today's value). That is the bug this note resolves.
+///
+/// We suppress rather than "divide by the median post-accumulation
+/// value" because the units don't line up: `annual_amount` is in
+/// today's dollars (spending is CPI-adjusted from today; see
+/// `searchSafeWithdrawal`), while the bands' `median_at_retirement`
+/// is nominal future dollars. A naive `annual_amount /
+/// median_at_retirement` would be off by the accumulation-period
+/// inflation factor, misleading in the opposite direction. A
+/// unit-correct rate needs the boundary inflation factor threaded
+/// through the simulation, which isn't worth it for a cosmetic
+/// column. The "Accumulation phase" block already reports the
+/// projected portfolio at retirement, so we point the reader there.
+pub fn swrRateNote(accumulation_years: u16) ?[]const u8 {
+    if (accumulation_years == 0) return null;
+    return "% rate omitted during accumulation (would divide retirement spending by today's portfolio). See Accumulation phase above.";
+}
+
 /// Build a percentile row (p10/p50/p90) across horizons.
 pub fn buildPercentileRow(
     arena: std.mem.Allocator,
@@ -1634,6 +1662,18 @@ test "buildWithdrawalRows produces amount and rate" {
     try std.testing.expect(rows.rate.style == .muted);
 }
 
+test "swrRateNote: null without accumulation, present with accumulation" {
+    // Distribution-only (already retired): the rate is a correct
+    // withdrawal rate against the current portfolio, so render it.
+    try std.testing.expect(swrRateNote(0) == null);
+
+    // With an accumulation phase the rate would divide today's-dollars
+    // retirement spending by today's portfolio; suppress and explain.
+    const note = swrRateNote(12) orelse return error.TestUnexpectedNull;
+    try std.testing.expect(std.mem.indexOf(u8, note, "omitted") != null);
+    try std.testing.expect(std.mem.indexOf(u8, note, "Accumulation phase") != null);
+}
+
 test "buildPercentileRow extracts correct percentile" {
     const allocator = std.testing.allocator;
     var arena = std.heap.ArenaAllocator.init(allocator);