From 120c51bce4978893bc5a724c908e5947d8237c2b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Emil Lerch <emil@lerch.org>
Date: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 14:52:45 -0700
Subject: [PATCH] implementation of spending smile

---
 TODO.md                                       |   2 -
 docs/explanation/projections-model.md         |   3 +
 docs/reference/config/projections-srf.md      |  41 +-
 examples/README.md                            |  33 +-
 examples/post-retirement-smile/accounts.srf   |   9 +
 .../history/2024-04-01-portfolio.srf          |  37 ++
 .../history/2024-10-01-portfolio.srf          |  16 +
 .../history/2025-04-01-portfolio.srf          |  16 +
 .../history/imported_values.srf               | 441 ++++++++++++++++++
 examples/post-retirement-smile/metadata.srf   |   8 +
 examples/post-retirement-smile/portfolio.srf  |  35 ++
 .../post-retirement-smile/projections.srf     |  51 ++
 src/analytics/projections.zig                 | 351 +++++++++++++-
 src/commands/projections.zig                  |  13 +
 src/tui/projections_tab.zig                   |  12 +
 src/views/projections.zig                     |  31 ++
 16 files changed, 1075 insertions(+), 24 deletions(-)
 create mode 100644 examples/post-retirement-smile/accounts.srf
 create mode 100644 examples/post-retirement-smile/history/2024-04-01-portfolio.srf
 create mode 100644 examples/post-retirement-smile/history/2024-10-01-portfolio.srf
 create mode 100644 examples/post-retirement-smile/history/2025-04-01-portfolio.srf
 create mode 100644 examples/post-retirement-smile/history/imported_values.srf
 create mode 100644 examples/post-retirement-smile/metadata.srf
 create mode 100644 examples/post-retirement-smile/portfolio.srf
 create mode 100644 examples/post-retirement-smile/projections.srf

diff --git a/TODO.md b/TODO.md
index b6e14b1..4f6b54c 100644
--- a/TODO.md
+++ b/TODO.md
@@ -31,8 +31,6 @@ ranking; unlabeled items are "someday, if the mood strikes."
   earlier than the other would benefit from per-person
   `retirement_age` fields on each `type::birthdate` record, with
   contributions stopped per-person.
-- Multiple spending models: flat (current), decreasing (1-2% real annual decrease,
-  Blanchett "spending smile"). Late-life healthcare better modeled as a life event.
 - **Historical projection overlay follow-ups.** The base
   `--overlay-actuals` overlay shipped (CLI tip + TUI primary surface).
   Open enhancements:
diff --git a/docs/explanation/projections-model.md b/docs/explanation/projections-model.md
index b1fdb40..e0d6251 100644
--- a/docs/explanation/projections-model.md
+++ b/docs/explanation/projections-model.md
@@ -26,6 +26,9 @@ Every projection runs the same two phases in order:
    zero years (an already-retired view).
 2. **Distribution** -- annual spending withdrawn (CPI-adjusted by
    default), no contributions. Its length is the configured `horizon`.
+   Spending is flat in real terms unless you set
+   [`spending_change`](../reference/config/projections-srf.md#declining-spending-the-smile)
+   to taper or grow it year over year (the Blanchett "spending smile").
 
 [Life events](../reference/config/projections-srf.md#event-fields)
 (Social Security, pensions, tuition, healthcare) adjust the cash flow
diff --git a/docs/reference/config/projections-srf.md b/docs/reference/config/projections-srf.md
index 2e21fed..8c2dac6 100644
--- a/docs/reference/config/projections-srf.md
+++ b/docs/reference/config/projections-srf.md
@@ -45,6 +45,7 @@ type::event,name::Social Security,start_age:num:70,amount:num:38400
 | `contribution_inflation_adjusted`    | bool | If `true` (default), contributions grow with CPI year over year.                                                               |
 | `target_spending`                    | num  | Desired retirement spending, in today's dollars.                                                                               |
 | `target_spending_inflation_adjusted` | bool | If `true` (default), target spending grows with CPI during distribution.                                                       |
+| `spending_change`                    | num  | Signed annual *real* change in spending across the distribution phase, as a whole percent. Negative = declining (e.g. `-2` = -2%/yr, the "spending smile"); positive = rising. Default: absent = flat real spending. Magnitude clamped to 10%/yr. See [Declining spending](#declining-spending-the-smile). |
 | `max_accumulation_years`             | num  | Ceiling (in years) the earliest-retirement search scans when `target_spending` is set. Default `50`, capped at `100`.          |
 | `retirement_target`                  | num  | Annotation on a `horizon`/`horizon_age` line that overrides the earliest-retirement promotion rule. Allowed: `90`, `95`, `99`. |
 
@@ -80,6 +81,43 @@ individual stocks, bonds, and cash contribute ~0. Set the result once:
 [Parity with FIRECalc](../../explanation/projections-model.md#parity-with-firecalc)
 for how the fee interacts with the rest of the model.
 
+### Declining spending (the smile)
+
+By default the simulation holds spending flat in real terms - the same
+inflation-adjusted dollars every year. Real retirees don't behave that
+way: spending tends to taper as people age (David Blanchett's
+"spending smile"). Set `spending_change` to model that drift:
+
+```
+type::config,spending_change:num:-2
+```
+
+is a 2%/yr real decline. The value is a **whole percent**, and the
+**sign is the direction**: negative declines, positive rises. Absent
+(the default) means flat. The magnitude is clamped to 10%/yr - a
+larger value is almost always a units typo (entering a fraction like
+`0.02` where a percent was meant).
+
+How it interacts with the rest of the model:
+
+- The safe-withdrawal numbers become the **first** distribution
+  year's spend; each later year is scaled by the drift. Declining
+  spending therefore *raises* the safe first-year withdrawal (you
+  spend less later, so you can afford more now); rising spending
+  lowers it.
+- The drift is a straight line. The Blanchett smile's late-life
+  *upturn* (healthcare) is not baked in - model it separately as a
+  `type::event` expense (see below). Composing a declining
+  `spending_change` with a late-life healthcare expense reproduces
+  the full U-shaped smile.
+- When a drift is configured, the Safe Withdrawal table gains a
+  **lowest-spending callout** in today's dollars - e.g.
+  `Lowest spending: $121,235 in year 12 (2037)`. Because it accounts
+  for expense events, the bottom of the U can land mid-retirement
+  rather than at the final year.
+
+See the `post-retirement-smile/` example for a worked configuration.
+
 ### Capping outlier returns
 
 The **Projected return** shown by `zfin projections` (and the "Projected
@@ -183,7 +221,7 @@ anchor.
 
 ## The example configurations
 
-The five bundled examples are fully-configured walkthroughs of each
+The six bundled examples are fully-configured walkthroughs of each
 combination:
 
 | `examples/...`                   | Inputs                                            |
@@ -193,6 +231,7 @@ combination:
 | `pre-retirement-spending-target` | target spending + an explicit (infeasible) anchor |
 | `pre-retirement-both`            | target date + target spending                     |
 | `post-retirement`                | neither (distribution-only)                       |
+| `post-retirement-smile`          | distribution-only + declining `spending_change`   |
 
 ```bash
 ZFIN_HOME=examples/pre-retirement-both zfin projections
diff --git a/examples/README.md b/examples/README.md
index 1d83c4c..eaea2c9 100644
--- a/examples/README.md
+++ b/examples/README.md
@@ -11,6 +11,7 @@ ZFIN_HOME=examples/pre-retirement-age               zfin projections
 ZFIN_HOME=examples/pre-retirement-spending          zfin projections
 ZFIN_HOME=examples/pre-retirement-spending-target   zfin projections
 ZFIN_HOME=examples/post-retirement                  zfin projections
+ZFIN_HOME=examples/post-retirement-smile            zfin projections
 ZFIN_HOME=examples/pre-retirement-both              zfin --tui
 ```
 
@@ -19,10 +20,10 @@ these examples are fictional. Do not interpret them as advice.
 
 ## Available examples
 
-The five scenarios share the same fictional couple and balance sheet
+The six scenarios share the same fictional couple and balance sheet
 (~$1.3M, age ~45, contributing $80k/yr) for the four pre-retirement
-variants, and a separate retired couple for the distribution example.
-Only the `projections.srf` configuration differs across the
+variants, and a separate retired couple for the two distribution
+examples. Only the `projections.srf` configuration differs across the
 pre-retirement variants - making it easy to see how each
 retirement-planning input shapes the output.
 
@@ -131,6 +132,32 @@ starting at age 80, plus Social Security already in pay status.
 Asset allocation target: 60/40 (more bond-heavy than the
 pre-retirement examples).
 
+### `post-retirement-smile/`
+
+The same retired couple as `post-retirement/`, but demonstrating the
+**declining spending model** (`spending_change`). Real spending is no
+longer held flat - it drifts down 2%/yr (`spending_change:num:-2`),
+modeling the Blanchett "spending smile": retirees spend more in the
+early "go-go" years and taper through the "slow-go" years.
+
+The smile's late-life upturn is NOT baked into the model - it is
+composed from the existing life-event mechanism. The age-80 healthcare
+expense (sized as a realistic long-term-care figure) supplies the
+rising "no-go" limb on top of the declining base. Because that expense
+outweighs the base decline once it starts, the lowest-spending year
+lands in mid-retirement (the year just before age 80), not the final
+year. The Safe Withdrawal table gains a callout:
+
+```
+  Lowest spending: $121,235 in year 12 (2037), today's dollars
+```
+
+reporting the bottom of the U in today's dollars. Note the first-year
+safe withdrawal is *higher* than in the flat `post-retirement/`
+example: spending less in later years frees up a larger draw early.
+(Exact figures move with the live benchmark data; the shape is the
+point.)
+
 ## Configuration file map
 
 Every example contains:
diff --git a/examples/post-retirement-smile/accounts.srf b/examples/post-retirement-smile/accounts.srf
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..adde32d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/examples/post-retirement-smile/accounts.srf
@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
+#!srfv1
+# Account tax type classification for the post-retirement example.
+
+account::Robin Trad IRA,tax_type::traditional,institution::fidelity,account_number::RTRA
+account::Robin Roth,tax_type::roth,institution::fidelity,account_number::RROT
+account::Jamie Trad IRA,tax_type::traditional,institution::vanguard,account_number::JTRA
+account::Jamie Roth,tax_type::roth,institution::vanguard,account_number::JROT
+account::Joint taxable,tax_type::taxable,institution::schwab,account_number::JT01
+account::Family HSA,tax_type::hsa,institution::fidelity,account_number::HSA01
diff --git a/examples/post-retirement-smile/history/2024-04-01-portfolio.srf b/examples/post-retirement-smile/history/2024-04-01-portfolio.srf
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..dfe8837
--- /dev/null
+++ b/examples/post-retirement-smile/history/2024-04-01-portfolio.srf
@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+#!srfv1
+# Synthetic snapshot for the projection-overlay demo. Real users land
+# real snapshot files here via `zfin snapshot`; this fixture is shaped
+# the same way but the totals are made up so the example renders with
+# meaningful numbers.
+kind::meta,snapshot_version:num:1,as_of_date::2024-04-01,captured_at:num:1711929600,zfin_version::example,stale_count:num:0
+kind::total,scope::net_worth,value:num:2350000.00
+kind::total,scope::liquid,value:num:2350000.00
+kind::total,scope::illiquid,value:num:0
+kind::tax_type,label::Traditional (Pre-Tax),value:num:1450000.00
+kind::tax_type,label::Roth (Post-Tax),value:num:480000.00
+kind::tax_type,label::Taxable,value:num:380000.00
+kind::tax_type,label::HSA (Triple Tax-Free),value:num:40000.00
+kind::account,name::Robin Trad IRA,value:num:980000.00
+kind::account,name::Jamie Trad IRA,value:num:470000.00
+kind::account,name::Robin Roth,value:num:280000.00
+kind::account,name::Jamie Roth,value:num:200000.00
+kind::account,name::Joint taxable,value:num:380000.00
+kind::account,name::Family HSA,value:num:40000.00
+kind::lot,symbol::VTI,lot_symbol::VTI,account::Robin Trad IRA,security_type::Stock,shares:num:1800,open_price:num:60.20,cost_basis:num:108360.00,value:num:455400.00,price:num:253.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
+kind::lot,symbol::AGG,lot_symbol::AGG,account::Robin Trad IRA,security_type::Stock,shares:num:1400,open_price:num:107.40,cost_basis:num:150360.00,value:num:138600.00,price:num:99.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
+kind::lot,symbol::SCHD,lot_symbol::SCHD,account::Robin Trad IRA,security_type::Stock,shares:num:600,open_price:num:53.10,cost_basis:num:31860.00,value:num:46500.00,price:num:77.50,quote_date::2024-04-01
+kind::lot,symbol::cash,lot_symbol::cash,account::Robin Trad IRA,security_type::Cash,shares:num:18500,open_price:num:1.00,cost_basis:num:18500.00,value:num:18500.00,price:num:1.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
+kind::lot,symbol::VTI,lot_symbol::VTI,account::Robin Roth,security_type::Stock,shares:num:380,open_price:num:71.50,cost_basis:num:27170.00,value:num:96140.00,price:num:253.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
+kind::lot,symbol::QQQ,lot_symbol::QQQ,account::Robin Roth,security_type::Stock,shares:num:140,open_price:num:97.30,cost_basis:num:13622.00,value:num:62300.00,price:num:445.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
+kind::lot,symbol::cash,lot_symbol::cash,account::Robin Roth,security_type::Cash,shares:num:1240,open_price:num:1.00,cost_basis:num:1240.00,value:num:1240.00,price:num:1.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
+kind::lot,symbol::VTI,lot_symbol::VTI,account::Jamie Trad IRA,security_type::Stock,shares:num:920,open_price:num:64.80,cost_basis:num:59616.00,value:num:232760.00,price:num:253.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
+kind::lot,symbol::AGG,lot_symbol::AGG,account::Jamie Trad IRA,security_type::Stock,shares:num:850,open_price:num:108.10,cost_basis:num:91885.00,value:num:84150.00,price:num:99.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
+kind::lot,symbol::cash,lot_symbol::cash,account::Jamie Trad IRA,security_type::Cash,shares:num:9800,open_price:num:1.00,cost_basis:num:9800.00,value:num:9800.00,price:num:1.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
+kind::lot,symbol::SPY,lot_symbol::SPY,account::Jamie Roth,security_type::Stock,shares:num:200,open_price:num:152.20,cost_basis:num:30440.00,value:num:104000.00,price:num:520.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
+kind::lot,symbol::SCHD,lot_symbol::SCHD,account::Jamie Roth,security_type::Stock,shares:num:280,open_price:num:55.40,cost_basis:num:15512.00,value:num:21700.00,price:num:77.50,quote_date::2024-04-01
+kind::lot,symbol::cash,lot_symbol::cash,account::Jamie Roth,security_type::Cash,shares:num:715,open_price:num:1.00,cost_basis:num:715.00,value:num:715.00,price:num:1.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
+kind::lot,symbol::SPY,lot_symbol::SPY,account::Joint taxable,security_type::Stock,shares:num:240,open_price:num:198.40,cost_basis:num:47616.00,value:num:124800.00,price:num:520.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
+kind::lot,symbol::AGG,lot_symbol::AGG,account::Joint taxable,security_type::Stock,shares:num:600,open_price:num:106.90,cost_basis:num:64140.00,value:num:59400.00,price:num:99.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
+kind::lot,symbol::cash,lot_symbol::cash,account::Joint taxable,security_type::Cash,shares:num:62000,open_price:num:1.00,cost_basis:num:62000.00,value:num:62000.00,price:num:1.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
+kind::lot,symbol::VTI,lot_symbol::VTI,account::Family HSA,security_type::Stock,shares:num:140,open_price:num:108.30,cost_basis:num:15162.00,value:num:35420.00,price:num:253.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
+kind::lot,symbol::cash,lot_symbol::cash,account::Family HSA,security_type::Cash,shares:num:4200,open_price:num:1.00,cost_basis:num:4200.00,value:num:4200.00,price:num:1.00,quote_date::2024-04-01
diff --git a/examples/post-retirement-smile/history/2024-10-01-portfolio.srf b/examples/post-retirement-smile/history/2024-10-01-portfolio.srf
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..142bcd6
--- /dev/null
+++ b/examples/post-retirement-smile/history/2024-10-01-portfolio.srf
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+#!srfv1
+# Synthetic snapshot - see 2024-04-01-portfolio.srf for the framing.
+kind::meta,snapshot_version:num:1,as_of_date::2024-10-01,captured_at:num:1727740800,zfin_version::example,stale_count:num:0
+kind::total,scope::net_worth,value:num:2470000.00
+kind::total,scope::liquid,value:num:2470000.00
+kind::total,scope::illiquid,value:num:0
+kind::tax_type,label::Traditional (Pre-Tax),value:num:1520000.00
+kind::tax_type,label::Roth (Post-Tax),value:num:505000.00
+kind::tax_type,label::Taxable,value:num:402000.00
+kind::tax_type,label::HSA (Triple Tax-Free),value:num:43000.00
+kind::account,name::Robin Trad IRA,value:num:1030000.00
+kind::account,name::Jamie Trad IRA,value:num:490000.00
+kind::account,name::Robin Roth,value:num:295000.00
+kind::account,name::Jamie Roth,value:num:210000.00
+kind::account,name::Joint taxable,value:num:402000.00
+kind::account,name::Family HSA,value:num:43000.00
diff --git a/examples/post-retirement-smile/history/2025-04-01-portfolio.srf b/examples/post-retirement-smile/history/2025-04-01-portfolio.srf
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..995f0a4
--- /dev/null
+++ b/examples/post-retirement-smile/history/2025-04-01-portfolio.srf
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+#!srfv1
+# Synthetic snapshot - see 2024-04-01-portfolio.srf for the framing.
+kind::meta,snapshot_version:num:1,as_of_date::2025-04-01,captured_at:num:1743465600,zfin_version::example,stale_count:num:0
+kind::total,scope::net_worth,value:num:2580000.00
+kind::total,scope::liquid,value:num:2580000.00
+kind::total,scope::illiquid,value:num:0
+kind::tax_type,label::Traditional (Pre-Tax),value:num:1590000.00
+kind::tax_type,label::Roth (Post-Tax),value:num:528000.00
+kind::tax_type,label::Taxable,value:num:418000.00
+kind::tax_type,label::HSA (Triple Tax-Free),value:num:44000.00
+kind::account,name::Robin Trad IRA,value:num:1075000.00
+kind::account,name::Jamie Trad IRA,value:num:515000.00
+kind::account,name::Robin Roth,value:num:308000.00
+kind::account,name::Jamie Roth,value:num:220000.00
+kind::account,name::Joint taxable,value:num:418000.00
+kind::account,name::Family HSA,value:num:44000.00
diff --git a/examples/post-retirement-smile/history/imported_values.srf b/examples/post-retirement-smile/history/imported_values.srf
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b543837
--- /dev/null
+++ b/examples/post-retirement-smile/history/imported_values.srf
@@ -0,0 +1,441 @@
+#!srfv1
+# Synthetic imported_values for the projection-overlay demo.
+# One row per week, 2016-01-03 through 2024-03-31, geometric
+# growth from $1.5M to $2.35M with light noise. The post-
+# retirement household had a longer accumulation history before
+# the household-wide retirement on 2023-12-31; the overlay shows
+# how the trajectory looked relative to projections from any
+# past as-of date.
+#
+# All numbers fictional.
+date::2016-01-03,liquid:num:1506274.21
+date::2016-01-10,liquid:num:1480170.08
+date::2016-01-17,liquid:num:1492990.64
+date::2016-01-24,liquid:num:1492211.09
+date::2016-01-31,liquid:num:1516963.26
+date::2016-02-07,liquid:num:1515844.10
+date::2016-02-14,liquid:num:1527185.11
+date::2016-02-21,liquid:num:1492278.80
+date::2016-02-28,liquid:num:1509038.33
+date::2016-03-06,liquid:num:1492802.49
+date::2016-03-13,liquid:num:1502948.92
+date::2016-03-20,liquid:num:1517570.24
+date::2016-03-27,liquid:num:1497336.99
+date::2016-04-03,liquid:num:1506760.66
+date::2016-04-10,liquid:num:1528930.61
+date::2016-04-17,liquid:num:1525730.79
+date::2016-04-24,liquid:num:1512476.06
+date::2016-05-01,liquid:num:1530950.36
+date::2016-05-08,liquid:num:1542644.98
+date::2016-05-15,liquid:num:1507400.61
+date::2016-05-22,liquid:num:1545703.68
+date::2016-05-29,liquid:num:1542365.33
+date::2016-06-05,liquid:num:1527497.31
+date::2016-06-12,liquid:num:1520576.18
+date::2016-06-19,liquid:num:1559158.06
+date::2016-06-26,liquid:num:1532120.38
+date::2016-07-03,liquid:num:1522445.71
+date::2016-07-10,liquid:num:1524219.86
+date::2016-07-17,liquid:num:1560599.35
+date::2016-07-24,liquid:num:1550922.78
+date::2016-07-31,liquid:num:1561987.23
+date::2016-08-07,liquid:num:1560021.49
+date::2016-08-14,liquid:num:1552647.61
+date::2016-08-21,liquid:num:1574618.65
+date::2016-08-28,liquid:num:1548540.50
+date::2016-09-04,liquid:num:1558256.50
+date::2016-09-11,liquid:num:1572843.72
+date::2016-09-18,liquid:num:1564623.15
+date::2016-09-25,liquid:num:1577643.90
+date::2016-10-02,liquid:num:1565964.18
+date::2016-10-09,liquid:num:1573569.05
+date::2016-10-16,liquid:num:1544272.68
+date::2016-10-23,liquid:num:1554446.46
+date::2016-10-30,liquid:num:1558964.35
+date::2016-11-06,liquid:num:1550717.65
+date::2016-11-13,liquid:num:1559553.71
+date::2016-11-20,liquid:num:1554960.54
+date::2016-11-27,liquid:num:1564949.16
+date::2016-12-04,liquid:num:1583508.18
+date::2016-12-11,liquid:num:1572334.21
+date::2016-12-18,liquid:num:1574230.29
+date::2016-12-25,liquid:num:1568249.00
+date::2017-01-01,liquid:num:1572617.69
+date::2017-01-08,liquid:num:1606110.49
+date::2017-01-15,liquid:num:1594047.11
+date::2017-01-22,liquid:num:1593858.10
+date::2017-01-29,liquid:num:1574626.68
+date::2017-02-05,liquid:num:1602920.70
+date::2017-02-12,liquid:num:1577548.29
+date::2017-02-19,liquid:num:1589536.34
+date::2017-02-26,liquid:num:1620424.63
+date::2017-03-05,liquid:num:1605354.48
+date::2017-03-12,liquid:num:1603044.29
+date::2017-03-19,liquid:num:1610854.34
+date::2017-03-26,liquid:num:1620149.82
+date::2017-04-02,liquid:num:1618622.67
+date::2017-04-09,liquid:num:1593944.83
+date::2017-04-16,liquid:num:1586105.08
+date::2017-04-23,liquid:num:1601451.00
+date::2017-04-30,liquid:num:1600816.47
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diff --git a/examples/post-retirement-smile/metadata.srf b/examples/post-retirement-smile/metadata.srf
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..c748ce6
--- /dev/null
+++ b/examples/post-retirement-smile/metadata.srf
@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+#!srfv1
+# Symbol classification metadata for the post-retirement example.
+
+symbol::VTI,sector::Diversified,geo::US,asset_class::US Large Cap
+symbol::SPY,sector::Diversified,geo::US,asset_class::US Large Cap
+symbol::QQQ,sector::Technology,geo::US,asset_class::US Large Cap
+symbol::SCHD,sector::Diversified,geo::US,asset_class::US Large Cap
+symbol::AGG,sector::Bonds,geo::US,asset_class::Bonds
diff --git a/examples/post-retirement-smile/portfolio.srf b/examples/post-retirement-smile/portfolio.srf
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..2ec85fb
--- /dev/null
+++ b/examples/post-retirement-smile/portfolio.srf
@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
+#!srfv1
+# Example portfolio: post-retirement household, ~age 68, ~$2.5M total.
+# All names, share counts, and prices are fictional. The household is
+# already retired and drawing down - see projections.srf for the
+# distribution-only configuration (no accumulation).
+
+# Robin's Traditional IRA - primary drawdown source
+symbol::VTI,shares:num:1800,open_date::2010-08-15,open_price:num:60.20,account::Robin Trad IRA
+symbol::AGG,shares:num:1400,open_date::2015-03-22,open_price:num:107.40,account::Robin Trad IRA
+symbol::SCHD,shares:num:600,open_date::2018-04-30,open_price:num:53.10,account::Robin Trad IRA
+security_type::cash,shares:num:18500.00,open_date::2026-04-30,open_price:num:1.00,account::Robin Trad IRA
+
+# Robin's Roth IRA - preserved for late-life / heirs
+symbol::VTI,shares:num:380,open_date::2012-11-08,open_price:num:71.50,account::Robin Roth
+symbol::QQQ,shares:num:140,open_date::2014-06-12,open_price:num:97.30,account::Robin Roth
+security_type::cash,shares:num:1240.00,open_date::2026-04-30,open_price:num:1.00,account::Robin Roth
+
+# Jamie's Traditional IRA
+symbol::VTI,shares:num:920,open_date::2011-05-18,open_price:num:64.80,account::Jamie Trad IRA
+symbol::AGG,shares:num:850,open_date::2016-09-04,open_price:num:108.10,account::Jamie Trad IRA
+security_type::cash,shares:num:9800.00,open_date::2026-04-30,open_price:num:1.00,account::Jamie Trad IRA
+
+# Jamie's Roth IRA
+symbol::SPY,shares:num:200,open_date::2013-02-14,open_price:num:152.20,account::Jamie Roth
+symbol::SCHD,shares:num:280,open_date::2020-08-25,open_price:num:55.40,account::Jamie Roth
+security_type::cash,shares:num:715.00,open_date::2026-04-30,open_price:num:1.00,account::Jamie Roth
+
+# Joint taxable - bridge income, RMD overflow
+symbol::SPY,shares:num:240,open_date::2014-09-30,open_price:num:198.40,account::Joint taxable
+symbol::AGG,shares:num:600,open_date::2017-11-15,open_price:num:106.90,account::Joint taxable
+security_type::cash,shares:num:62000.00,open_date::2026-04-30,open_price:num:1.00,account::Joint taxable
+
+# Family HSA - still tax-advantaged, used for late-life medical
+symbol::VTI,shares:num:140,open_date::2016-06-22,open_price:num:108.30,account::Family HSA
+security_type::cash,shares:num:4200.00,open_date::2026-04-30,open_price:num:1.00,account::Family HSA
diff --git a/examples/post-retirement-smile/projections.srf b/examples/post-retirement-smile/projections.srf
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..0d39f77
--- /dev/null
+++ b/examples/post-retirement-smile/projections.srf
@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+#!srfv1
+# Post-retirement projection with a declining ("spending smile") model.
+#
+# Same retired couple as the post-retirement/ example - Robin (born
+# 1958) and Jamie (born 1961) - but this variant demonstrates the
+# spending_change feature: real spending is not held flat, it drifts.
+#
+# The Blanchett "spending smile": retirees spend more in the early
+# "go-go" years, taper through the "slow-go" years, then spending
+# rises again late as healthcare costs dominate the "no-go" years.
+# zfin models the two limbs separately:
+#
+#   1. The declining limb is `spending_change` below (-2%/yr real).
+#   2. The late-life rise is the Healthcare life event (age 80),
+#      already an expense record - no special-casing needed.
+#
+# Composing those two produces the U-shaped smile, and the
+# "Lowest spending: ... in year N" callout under the Safe Withdrawal
+# table reports the bottom of the U in today's dollars.
+
+# Allocation target shifts more conservative in retirement
+type::config,target_stock_pct:num:60
+
+# Real spending declines 2%/yr through retirement (negative = decline,
+# positive would model a rising real spend). Whole percent; absent =
+# flat real spending, the default.
+type::config,spending_change:num:-2
+
+# Distribution horizons - through age 90 (older partner first)
+type::config,horizon:num:20
+type::config,horizon:num:30
+type::config,horizon_age:num:95
+
+# Birthdates
+type::birthdate,date::1958-02-19
+type::birthdate,date::1961-07-04,person:num:2
+
+# Social Security - both already collecting. Income reduces the
+# portfolio withdrawal but is NOT counted as spending, so it does not
+# move the spending-trough callout.
+type::event,name::Social Security (Robin),start_age:num:67,person:num:1,amount:num:34800
+type::event,name::Social Security (Jamie),start_age:num:65,person:num:2,amount:num:28200
+
+# Late-life healthcare bump - the rising limb of the smile. Modeled as
+# a recurring expense starting at age 80 for the older partner (a
+# realistic long-term-care figure). It is large enough to outweigh the
+# base decline once it starts, so the spending trough lands in
+# mid-retirement - the year just before age 80 - rather than the final
+# year. That mid-trajectory minimum is exactly what the trough callout
+# is for.
+type::event,name::Healthcare (late-life),start_age:num:80,person:num:1,amount:num:-55000
diff --git a/src/analytics/projections.zig b/src/analytics/projections.zig
index 97c5500..6adfadc 100644
--- a/src/analytics/projections.zig
+++ b/src/analytics/projections.zig
@@ -242,6 +242,14 @@ pub const UserConfig = struct {
     /// If true, the target spending grows with CPI during the
     /// distribution phase (matches the existing SWR model).
     target_spending_inflation_adjusted: bool = true,
+    /// Signed annual *real* change in spending across the
+    /// distribution phase, as a fraction (e.g. -0.02 = declines
+    /// 2%/yr, +0.01 = rises 1%/yr). `null` -> flat real spending,
+    /// the historical default. Set via
+    /// `type::config,spending_change:num:N` where N is a whole
+    /// percent (negative = decline). Feeds `SimParams.
+    /// spending_real_change` for every horizon/confidence cell.
+    spending_real_change: ?f64 = null,
     /// Ceiling on the accumulation years the earliest-retirement
     /// search (`findEarliestRetirement`) will consider when
     /// `target_spending` is set. Defaults to
@@ -480,6 +488,10 @@ const SrfConfig = struct {
     contribution_inflation_adjusted: ?bool = null,
     target_spending: ?f64 = null,
     target_spending_inflation_adjusted: ?bool = null,
+    /// Signed annual real spending change, in whole percent
+    /// (negative = decline). Parsed/clamped into
+    /// `UserConfig.spending_real_change` as a fraction.
+    spending_change: ?f64 = null,
     max_accumulation_years: ?u16 = null,
     benchmark_stock: ?[]const u8 = null,
     benchmark_bond: ?[]const u8 = null,
@@ -508,6 +520,15 @@ const SrfProjection = union(enum) {
     event: SrfEvent,
 };
 
+/// Clamp on the magnitude of `spending_change` (10%/yr real, in
+/// either direction). A larger drift is almost certainly a units
+/// typo - someone entering a fraction (0.02) where a whole percent
+/// (2) was expected reads as 0.02%/yr (negligible), but the reverse
+/// (entering 20 meaning 0.20) would otherwise crater spending to
+/// zero within a decade. The clamp keeps a fat-fingered value from
+/// silently producing nonsense.
+pub const max_abs_spending_real_change: f64 = 0.10;
+
 /// Parse a projections.srf file into a UserConfig.
 /// Returns default config if data is null or unparseable.
 ///
@@ -525,6 +546,7 @@ const SrfProjection = union(enum) {
 /// Format (union-tagged SRF records):
 ///   type::config,target_stock_pct:num:80
 ///   type::config,horizon:num:30
+///   type::config,spending_change:num:-2
 ///   type::birthdate,date::1975-03-15
 ///   type::event,name::Social Security,start_age:num:67,amount:num:38400
 pub fn parseProjectionsConfig(data: ?[]const u8) UserConfig {
@@ -632,6 +654,23 @@ pub fn parseProjectionsConfig(data: ?[]const u8) UserConfig {
                 if (c.target_spending_inflation_adjusted) |b| {
                     config.target_spending_inflation_adjusted = b;
                 }
+                if (c.spending_change) |pct| {
+                    // Entered as a whole percent (negative = decline,
+                    // positive = rising real spending); stored as a
+                    // fraction. Clamp the magnitude so a units typo
+                    // can't drive spending to zero or absurd growth.
+                    const frac = pct / 100.0;
+                    const cap = max_abs_spending_real_change;
+                    if (frac > cap) {
+                        warnUser("projections: spending_change capped at +{d:.0}%/yr (got {d}%)", .{ cap * 100.0, pct });
+                        config.spending_real_change = cap;
+                    } else if (frac < -cap) {
+                        warnUser("projections: spending_change capped at -{d:.0}%/yr (got {d}%)", .{ cap * 100.0, pct });
+                        config.spending_real_change = -cap;
+                    } else {
+                        config.spending_real_change = frac;
+                    }
+                }
                 if (c.max_accumulation_years) |n| {
                     if (n == 0) {
                         // A zero-year search ceiling is degenerate (it
@@ -760,6 +799,19 @@ pub const SimParams = struct {
     stock_pct: f64,
     annual_spending: f64,
     spending_inflation_adjusted: bool = true,
+    /// Signed annual *real* change in spending, applied across the
+    /// distribution phase (the "spending smile" / Blanchett model).
+    /// A fraction: -0.02 = spending declines 2%/yr in real terms
+    /// ("slow-go" years), +0.01 = rises 1%/yr. `0` (the default) is
+    /// flat real spending - the historical behavior, byte-identical.
+    ///
+    /// `annual_spending` is the *first* distribution year's spend;
+    /// year `d` of distribution spends `annual_spending * (1 +
+    /// spending_real_change)^d` in real terms, then the usual CPI
+    /// factor converts to nominal. Localized late-life cost humps
+    /// (healthcare) are modeled separately as `events`, so this is a
+    /// monotonic drift, not the full U-curve.
+    spending_real_change: f64 = 0,
     /// Distribution-phase length (the "horizon" in the existing API).
     distribution_years: u16,
     accumulation_years: u16 = 0,
@@ -833,6 +885,13 @@ fn simulateTwoPhase(
     if (buf) |b| b[0] = portfolio;
 
     var cumulative_inflation: f64 = 1.0;
+    // Real-spending multiplier for the current distribution year.
+    // Pinned at 1.0 through accumulation and the first distribution
+    // year (d=0), then compounded by `(1 + spending_real_change)`
+    // each subsequent distribution year. `spending_real_change == 0`
+    // leaves it at 1.0 forever -> flat real spending, byte-identical
+    // to the pre-smile behavior.
+    var spend_factor: f64 = 1.0;
     var failed = false;
 
     var y: usize = 0;
@@ -865,10 +924,11 @@ fn simulateTwoPhase(
                 params.annual_contribution;
             portfolio += contribution + event_net;
         } else {
+            const real_spending = params.annual_spending * spend_factor;
             const spending = if (params.spending_inflation_adjusted)
-                params.annual_spending * cumulative_inflation
+                real_spending * cumulative_inflation
             else
-                params.annual_spending;
+                real_spending;
             portfolio -= spending - event_net;
             if (portfolio <= 0 and !failed) {
                 // Survival-only callers exit immediately - there's
@@ -876,6 +936,9 @@ fn simulateTwoPhase(
                 if (buf == null) return false;
                 failed = true;
             }
+            // Compound the real-spending drift for next year. No-op
+            // when `spending_real_change == 0` (factor stays 1.0).
+            spend_factor *= (1.0 + params.spending_real_change);
         }
 
         // Market return on the post-cashflow balance, net of the
@@ -999,11 +1062,13 @@ pub fn findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(
     annual_contribution: f64,
     contribution_inflation_adjusted: bool,
     expense_ratio: f64,
+    spending_real_change: f64,
 ) WithdrawalResult {
     return searchSafeWithdrawal(.{
         .initial_value = initial_value,
         .stock_pct = stock_pct,
         .annual_spending = 0, // overwritten by the search loop
+        .spending_real_change = spending_real_change,
         .distribution_years = horizon,
         .accumulation_years = accumulation_years,
         .annual_contribution = annual_contribution,
@@ -1139,6 +1204,7 @@ pub fn findEarliestRetirement(
     events: []const ResolvedEvent,
     max_years: u16,
     expense_ratio: f64,
+    spending_real_change: f64,
 ) !EarliestRetirement {
     const data = shiller.annual_returns;
 
@@ -1149,6 +1215,7 @@ pub fn findEarliestRetirement(
             .stock_pct = stock_pct,
             .annual_spending = target_spending,
             .spending_inflation_adjusted = target_spending_inflation_adjusted,
+            .spending_real_change = spending_real_change,
             .distribution_years = distribution_years,
             .accumulation_years = n,
             .annual_contribution = annual_contribution,
@@ -1482,6 +1549,7 @@ pub fn runProjectionGrid(
     annual_contribution: f64,
     contribution_inflation_adjusted: bool,
     expense_ratio: f64,
+    spending_real_change: f64,
 ) !ProjectionData {
     const num_results = horizons.len * confidence_levels.len;
     const withdrawals = try alloc.alloc(WithdrawalResult, num_results);
@@ -1497,6 +1565,7 @@ pub fn runProjectionGrid(
                 annual_contribution,
                 contribution_inflation_adjusted,
                 expense_ratio,
+                spending_real_change,
             );
         }
     }
@@ -1508,6 +1577,7 @@ pub fn runProjectionGrid(
             .initial_value = total_value,
             .stock_pct = stock_pct,
             .annual_spending = wr.annual_amount,
+            .spending_real_change = spending_real_change,
             .distribution_years = h,
             .accumulation_years = accumulation_years,
             .annual_contribution = annual_contribution,
@@ -1519,7 +1589,83 @@ pub fn runProjectionGrid(
     return .{ .withdrawals = withdrawals, .bands = bands, .ci_99 = ci_99 };
 }
 
-// ── Test-only convenience wrappers ─────────────────────────────
+// ── Spending trough (the "how low does it get" callout) ────────
+
+/// The lowest-spending year of a projection's distribution phase,
+/// in today's dollars. Surfaced next to the first-year safe
+/// withdrawal so a user running a declining ("slow-go") spending
+/// model can see how little they spend at the bottom.
+pub const SpendingTrough = struct {
+    /// Minimum total real spending (today's dollars) reached.
+    amount: f64,
+    /// Distribution-year offset (0-based) where the minimum occurs.
+    year_offset: u16,
+    /// Years from `as_of` to that year, 1-based (1 = first
+    /// retirement year). Equals `accumulation_years + year_offset + 1`.
+    years_from_now: u16,
+    /// Calendar date of the trough year (`as_of` advanced by
+    /// `accumulation_years + year_offset`).
+    date: Date,
+};
+
+/// Find the lowest-spending distribution year, in today's dollars.
+///
+/// Base spending follows the real-change drift: distribution year
+/// `d` spends `first_year_spend * (1 + spending_real_change)^d` in
+/// real terms. EXPENSE life events (negative `annual_amount`, e.g.
+/// late-life healthcare) add to spending - that is what produces a
+/// mid-retirement trough rather than a monotonic slide to the final
+/// year. Income events (Social Security, positive amounts) are
+/// funding rather than spending and are excluded.
+///
+/// Today's-dollar (real) terms throughout: each active expense event
+/// contributes its configured magnitude. This is a deterministic
+/// display approximation - it does not erode non-inflation-adjusted
+/// events across time the way the per-cycle simulation does - but it
+/// gives a single, stable number for the callout. `as_of` anchors
+/// the calendar year.
+///
+/// Returns `null` only for a zero-length distribution phase.
+pub fn spendingTrough(
+    first_year_spend: f64,
+    spending_real_change: f64,
+    events: []const ResolvedEvent,
+    accumulation_years: u16,
+    distribution_years: u16,
+    as_of: Date,
+) ?SpendingTrough {
+    if (distribution_years == 0) return null;
+
+    var min_amount: f64 = std.math.floatMax(f64);
+    var min_d: u16 = 0;
+    var factor: f64 = 1.0;
+
+    var d: u16 = 0;
+    while (d < distribution_years) : (d += 1) {
+        const sim_year = accumulation_years + d;
+        var spend = first_year_spend * factor;
+        for (events) |*ev| {
+            // Only expense events count as spending; income (SS etc.)
+            // funds withdrawals but is not consumption.
+            if (ev.annual_amount < 0 and ev.isActive(sim_year)) {
+                spend += -ev.annual_amount;
+            }
+        }
+        if (spend < min_amount) {
+            min_amount = spend;
+            min_d = d;
+        }
+        factor *= (1.0 + spending_real_change);
+    }
+
+    return .{
+        .amount = min_amount,
+        .year_offset = min_d,
+        .years_from_now = accumulation_years + min_d + 1,
+        .date = as_of.addYears(accumulation_years + min_d),
+    };
+}
+
 //
 // Thin, distribution-only, zero-fee wrappers over the production
 // `*Params` entry points (`searchSafeWithdrawal`, `successRateParams`,
@@ -1818,8 +1964,8 @@ test "FIRECalc parity: expense ratio matches FIRECalc's default fee" {
 
     // Safe withdrawal with the fee on. FIRECalc fee=0.18 refs:
     // 75/25 30y 95% -> $40,381; 75/25 45y 99% $7.7M -> $258,747.
-    const w_30 = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0.0018);
-    const w_45 = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(45, 7_700_000, 0.75, 0.99, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0.0018);
+    const w_30 = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0.0018, 0);
+    const w_45 = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(45, 7_700_000, 0.75, 0.99, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0.0018, 0);
     try std.testing.expect(w_30.annual_amount >= 40_381 * 0.97);
     try std.testing.expect(w_30.annual_amount <= 40_381 * 1.15);
     try std.testing.expect(w_45.annual_amount >= 258_747 * 0.97);
@@ -2473,7 +2619,7 @@ test "regression: zero accumulation matches direct findSafeWithdrawal" {
     // because the two paths execute the same code with the same
     // inputs - any drift here means the unification broke.
     const direct = findSafeWithdrawal(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{});
-    const via_accum = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0);
+    const via_accum = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
     try std.testing.expectEqual(direct.annual_amount, via_accum.annual_amount);
     try std.testing.expectEqual(direct.confidence, via_accum.confidence);
     try std.testing.expectEqual(direct.withdrawal_rate, via_accum.withdrawal_rate);
@@ -2558,7 +2704,7 @@ test "two-phase: SWR with accumulation exceeds same-portfolio direct SWR" {
     // a higher safe withdrawal than $1M alone over a 30-year
     // distribution at the same confidence.
     const direct = findSafeWithdrawal(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{});
-    const with_accum = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{}, 10, 100_000, true, 0);
+    const with_accum = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{}, 10, 100_000, true, 0, 0);
     try std.testing.expect(with_accum.annual_amount > direct.annual_amount);
 }
 
@@ -2642,6 +2788,7 @@ test "findEarliestRetirement: feasible at N=0 returns 0" {
         &.{},
         50, // max_years
         0, // expense_ratio
+        0, // spending_real_change
     );
     try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(?u16, 0), r.accumulation_years);
 }
@@ -2663,6 +2810,7 @@ test "findEarliestRetirement: unreachable returns null" {
         &.{},
         50,
         0, // expense_ratio
+        0, // spending_real_change
     );
     try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(?u16, null), r.accumulation_years);
 }
@@ -2683,6 +2831,7 @@ test "findEarliestRetirement: longer distribution shifts retirement later or unc
         &.{},
         50,
         0, // expense_ratio
+        0, // spending_real_change
     );
     const long = try findEarliestRetirement(
         allocator,
@@ -2697,6 +2846,7 @@ test "findEarliestRetirement: longer distribution shifts retirement later or unc
         &.{},
         50,
         0, // expense_ratio
+        0, // spending_real_change
     );
     if (short.accumulation_years != null and long.accumulation_years != null) {
         try std.testing.expect(long.accumulation_years.? >= short.accumulation_years.?);
@@ -2718,6 +2868,7 @@ test "findEarliestRetirement: result includes portfolio statistics" {
         &.{},
         50,
         0, // expense_ratio
+        0, // spending_real_change
     );
     if (r.accumulation_years) |n| {
         if (n > 0) {
@@ -2996,7 +3147,7 @@ test "runProjectionGrid: structure and indexing" {
     const horizons = [_]u16{ 20, 30 };
     const conf = [_]f64{ 0.95, 0.99 };
 
-    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0);
+    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
     defer freeProjectionData(allocator, data);
 
     // 2 horizons × 2 confidence levels = 4 withdrawal results.
@@ -3014,7 +3165,7 @@ test "runProjectionGrid: withdrawal monotonicity along confidence axis" {
     const horizons = [_]u16{30};
     const conf = [_]f64{ 0.90, 0.95, 0.99 };
 
-    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0);
+    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
     defer freeProjectionData(allocator, data);
 
     const w_90 = data.withdrawals[0 * horizons.len + 0].annual_amount;
@@ -3030,7 +3181,7 @@ test "runProjectionGrid: withdrawal monotonicity along horizon axis" {
     const horizons = [_]u16{ 20, 30, 45 };
     const conf = [_]f64{0.95};
 
-    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0);
+    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
     defer freeProjectionData(allocator, data);
 
     const w_20 = data.withdrawals[0 * horizons.len + 0].annual_amount;
@@ -3045,7 +3196,7 @@ test "runProjectionGrid: distribution-only band length is horizon + 1" {
     const horizons = [_]u16{ 20, 30 };
     const conf = [_]f64{ 0.95, 0.99 };
 
-    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0);
+    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
     defer freeProjectionData(allocator, data);
 
     // band[0] covers horizons[0] = 20 -> 21 entries; band[1] covers
@@ -3060,7 +3211,7 @@ test "runProjectionGrid: with-accumulation band length includes accumulation_yea
     const conf = [_]f64{0.95};
 
     // 10 years of accumulation + 30 years distribution -> 41 entries.
-    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 10, 50_000, true, 0);
+    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 10, 50_000, true, 0, 0);
     defer freeProjectionData(allocator, data);
 
     try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(usize, 41), data.bands[0].?.len);
@@ -3071,7 +3222,7 @@ test "runProjectionGrid: bands are p10 ≤ p25 ≤ p50 ≤ p75 ≤ p90 at every
     const horizons = [_]u16{30};
     const conf = [_]f64{0.95};
 
-    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0);
+    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
     defer freeProjectionData(allocator, data);
 
     for (data.bands[0].?) |b| {
@@ -3088,7 +3239,7 @@ test "runProjectionGrid: year 0 in every band equals total_value" {
     const conf = [_]f64{0.95};
 
     const total_value: f64 = 2_000_000;
-    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, total_value, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0);
+    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, total_value, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
     defer freeProjectionData(allocator, data);
 
     for (data.bands) |b_opt| {
@@ -3112,7 +3263,7 @@ test "runProjectionGrid: bands are computed at the highest-confidence withdrawal
     const horizons = [_]u16{30};
     const conf = [_]f64{ 0.90, 0.95, 0.99 };
 
-    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0);
+    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
     defer freeProjectionData(allocator, data);
 
     const wr_99 = data.withdrawals[data.ci_99 * horizons.len + 0];
@@ -3144,10 +3295,10 @@ test "runProjectionGrid: accumulation passes through to both withdrawals and ban
     const horizons = [_]u16{30};
     const conf = [_]f64{0.95};
 
-    const dist_only = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0);
+    const dist_only = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
     defer freeProjectionData(allocator, dist_only);
 
-    const with_accum = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 10, 50_000, true, 0);
+    const with_accum = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 10, 50_000, true, 0, 0);
     defer freeProjectionData(allocator, with_accum);
 
     // SWR with 10y of contributions on top should exceed SWR
@@ -3163,9 +3314,173 @@ test "runProjectionGrid: zero horizons produces empty results without crashing"
     const horizons = [_]u16{};
     const conf = [_]f64{ 0.95, 0.99 };
 
-    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0);
+    const data = try runProjectionGrid(allocator, &horizons, &conf, 1_000_000, 0.75, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
     defer freeProjectionData(allocator, data);
 
     try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(usize, 0), data.withdrawals.len);
     try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(usize, 0), data.bands.len);
 }
+
+// ── Spending-drift (the "smile") tests ─────────────────────────
+
+test "spending_real_change: declining spending raises safe withdrawal, rising lowers it" {
+    // Same portfolio, horizon, and confidence - only the spending
+    // trajectory differs. Spending less in the slow-go years frees up
+    // a higher first-year draw; spending more requires a lower one.
+    const flat = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
+    const declining = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, -0.02);
+    const rising = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0.02);
+    try std.testing.expect(declining.annual_amount > flat.annual_amount);
+    try std.testing.expect(rising.annual_amount < flat.annual_amount);
+}
+
+test "spending_real_change: zero drift is identical to the flat model" {
+    // The default (rate 0) must reproduce the pre-smile behavior
+    // exactly - the regression pin for every existing projection.
+    const flat = findSafeWithdrawal(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{});
+    const zero_drift = findSafeWithdrawalWithAccumulation(30, 1_000_000, 0.75, 0.95, &.{}, 0, 0, true, 0, 0);
+    try std.testing.expectEqual(flat.annual_amount, zero_drift.annual_amount);
+}
+
+test "spendingTrough: monotonic decline bottoms out in the final year" {
+    const as_of = Date.fromYmd(2026, 1, 1);
+    const t = spendingTrough(60_000, -0.02, &.{}, 0, 30, as_of).?;
+    // No events -> spending falls every year -> trough is the last
+    // distribution year (d = 29).
+    try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(u16, 29), t.year_offset);
+    try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(u16, 30), t.years_from_now);
+    const expected = 60_000.0 * std.math.pow(f64, 0.98, 29);
+    try std.testing.expectApproxEqAbs(expected, t.amount, 1.0);
+    try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(i16, 2055), t.date.year());
+}
+
+test "spendingTrough: a late healthcare expense pulls the trough to mid-retirement" {
+    const as_of = Date.fromYmd(2026, 1, 1);
+    // Base spending declines 2%/yr; a permanent +$40k/yr healthcare
+    // expense begins at distribution year 20. Spending slides until
+    // then, then jumps - so the trough is the year just before the
+    // hump (d = 19), not the final year. This is the whole reason the
+    // trough is computed rather than read off the last year.
+    const healthcare = [_]ResolvedEvent{.{
+        .start_year = 20,
+        .duration = 0,
+        .annual_amount = -40_000,
+        .inflation_adjusted = true,
+    }};
+    const t = spendingTrough(60_000, -0.02, &healthcare, 0, 30, as_of).?;
+    try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(u16, 19), t.year_offset);
+}
+
+test "spendingTrough: rising spending bottoms out in the first year" {
+    const as_of = Date.fromYmd(2026, 1, 1);
+    const t = spendingTrough(50_000, 0.01, &.{}, 0, 30, as_of).?;
+    try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(u16, 0), t.year_offset);
+    try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(u16, 1), t.years_from_now);
+    try std.testing.expectApproxEqAbs(@as(f64, 50_000), t.amount, 0.01);
+}
+
+test "spendingTrough: income events do not count as spending" {
+    const as_of = Date.fromYmd(2026, 1, 1);
+    // A Social Security income event funds withdrawals but is not
+    // consumption, so it must not lower the reported spending trough.
+    const ss = [_]ResolvedEvent{.{
+        .start_year = 5,
+        .duration = 0,
+        .annual_amount = 30_000, // positive = income
+        .inflation_adjusted = true,
+    }};
+    const with_income = spendingTrough(60_000, -0.02, &ss, 0, 30, as_of).?;
+    const without = spendingTrough(60_000, -0.02, &.{}, 0, 30, as_of).?;
+    try std.testing.expectEqual(without.amount, with_income.amount);
+    try std.testing.expectEqual(without.year_offset, with_income.year_offset);
+}
+
+test "spendingTrough: accumulation phase offsets the trough year and date" {
+    const as_of = Date.fromYmd(2026, 1, 1);
+    // 10 accumulation years, then 20 distribution years declining
+    // 1%/yr. Trough at the last distribution year (d = 19);
+    // years_from_now = 10 + 19 + 1 = 30; calendar 2026 + 29 = 2055.
+    const t = spendingTrough(50_000, -0.01, &.{}, 10, 20, as_of).?;
+    try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(u16, 19), t.year_offset);
+    try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(u16, 30), t.years_from_now);
+    try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(i16, 2055), t.date.year());
+}
+
+test "spendingTrough: zero distribution years returns null" {
+    const as_of = Date.fromYmd(2026, 1, 1);
+    try std.testing.expectEqual(
+        @as(?SpendingTrough, null),
+        spendingTrough(60_000, -0.02, &.{}, 0, 0, as_of),
+    );
+}
+
+test "parseProjectionsConfig spending_change negative is a decline" {
+    const config = parseProjectionsConfig("#!srfv1\ntype::config,spending_change:num:-2\n");
+    try std.testing.expectApproxEqAbs(@as(f64, -0.02), config.spending_real_change.?, 1e-9);
+}
+
+test "parseProjectionsConfig spending_change positive is a rise" {
+    const config = parseProjectionsConfig("#!srfv1\ntype::config,spending_change:num:1\n");
+    try std.testing.expectApproxEqAbs(@as(f64, 0.01), config.spending_real_change.?, 1e-9);
+}
+
+test "parseProjectionsConfig spending_change absent stays null (flat)" {
+    const config = parseProjectionsConfig("#!srfv1\ntype::config,horizon:num:30\n");
+    try std.testing.expectEqual(@as(?f64, null), config.spending_real_change);
+}
+
+test "parseProjectionsConfig spending_change magnitude is clamped both directions" {
+    const hi = parseProjectionsConfig("#!srfv1\ntype::config,spending_change:num:50\n");
+    try std.testing.expectApproxEqAbs(max_abs_spending_real_change, hi.spending_real_change.?, 1e-9);
+    const lo = parseProjectionsConfig("#!srfv1\ntype::config,spending_change:num:-50\n");
+    try std.testing.expectApproxEqAbs(-max_abs_spending_real_change, lo.spending_real_change.?, 1e-9);
+}
+
+test "integration: declining model + late healthcare troughs mid-retirement" {
+    // Mirrors the shipped `examples/post-retirement-smile` config
+    // (keep the two in sync). Exercises the full path - parse the
+    // signed-percent drift, resolve the life events, and compute the
+    // trough. Composing the 2%/yr decline with the age-80 healthcare
+    // expense must put the spending trough in mid-retirement (the
+    // year just before the expense begins), not at the final
+    // distribution year - the whole reason the trough is searched for
+    // rather than read off the last year. (The shipped example file
+    // itself is validated by running the binary against it; @embedFile
+    // can't reach outside src/.)
+    const cfg =
+        \\#!srfv1
+        \\type::config,target_stock_pct:num:60
+        \\type::config,spending_change:num:-2
+        \\type::config,horizon:num:30
+        \\type::birthdate,date::1958-02-19
+        \\type::birthdate,date::1961-07-04,person:num:2
+        \\type::event,name::Social Security (Robin),start_age:num:67,person:num:1,amount:num:34800
+        \\type::event,name::Healthcare (late-life),start_age:num:80,person:num:1,amount:num:-55000
+    ;
+    const config = parseProjectionsConfig(cfg);
+
+    // -2 whole percent -> -0.02 fraction.
+    try std.testing.expectApproxEqAbs(@as(f64, -0.02), config.spending_real_change.?, 1e-9);
+
+    // Resolve the life events against a fixed reference date (not
+    // "today" - tests must be deterministic).
+    const as_of = Date.fromYmd(2026, 6, 26);
+    const resolved = config.resolveEvents(as_of);
+    const events = resolved[0..config.event_count];
+
+    // Find the resolved start year of the lone expense event (the
+    // late-life healthcare bump).
+    var hc_start: ?u16 = null;
+    for (events) |ev| {
+        if (ev.annual_amount < 0) hc_start = ev.start_year;
+    }
+    try std.testing.expect(hc_start != null);
+
+    const dist_years: u16 = 30;
+    const t = spendingTrough(150_000, config.spending_real_change.?, events, 0, dist_years, as_of).?;
+
+    // Trough is the year just before healthcare starts...
+    try std.testing.expectEqual(hc_start.? - 1, t.year_offset);
+    // ...which is strictly before the final distribution year.
+    try std.testing.expect(t.year_offset < dist_years - 1);
+}
diff --git a/src/commands/projections.zig b/src/commands/projections.zig
index f3ff38f..3eac249 100644
--- a/src/commands/projections.zig
+++ b/src/commands/projections.zig
@@ -957,6 +957,19 @@ pub fn runBands(
         try cli.printFg(out, color, cli.CLR_MUTED, "  {s}\n", .{note});
     }
 
+    // Spending trough: when a declining/rising spending model is
+    // active, surface the lowest-spending year in today's dollars.
+    // It accounts for expense life events (e.g. a late-life
+    // healthcare hump), so it can land mid-retirement rather than at
+    // the final year.
+    if (ctx.spending_trough) |trough| {
+        try cli.printFg(out, color, cli.CLR_MUTED, "  Lowest spending: {f} in year {d} ({d}), today's dollars\n", .{
+            Money.from(trough.amount).whole(),
+            trough.years_from_now,
+            trough.date.year(),
+        });
+    }
+
     // Life events summary - both as-of and live modes resolve ages
     // against the reference date (`resolution.actual` if a snapshot
     // was loaded, otherwise `as_of` directly).
diff --git a/src/tui/projections_tab.zig b/src/tui/projections_tab.zig
index 1d0854d..05cd2b7 100644
--- a/src/tui/projections_tab.zig
+++ b/src/tui/projections_tab.zig
@@ -1279,6 +1279,18 @@ fn appendSwrTable(
             .style = th.mutedStyle(),
         });
     }
+
+    // Spending trough callout (declining/rising spending models only).
+    if (pctx.spending_trough) |trough| {
+        try lines.append(arena, .{
+            .text = try std.fmt.allocPrint(arena, "  Lowest spending: {f} in year {d} ({d}), today's dollars", .{
+                Money.from(trough.amount).whole(),
+                trough.years_from_now,
+                trough.date.year(),
+            }),
+            .style = th.mutedStyle(),
+        });
+    }
 }
 
 fn appendEventSummary(lines: *std.ArrayListUnmanaged(StyledLine), as_of: zfin.Date, arena: std.mem.Allocator, th: theme.Theme, pctx: view.ProjectionContext) !void {
diff --git a/src/views/projections.zig b/src/views/projections.zig
index e260a9d..19d70e8 100644
--- a/src/views/projections.zig
+++ b/src/views/projections.zig
@@ -174,6 +174,12 @@ pub const ProjectionContext = struct {
     /// Drives the header note ("As-of: ... (snapshot)" vs "(imported)")
     /// so users know how literal the bands are.
     as_of_source: AsOfSource = .live,
+    /// Lowest-spending year of the headline cell's distribution phase
+    /// (longest horizon at the highest confidence), in today's
+    /// dollars. Populated only when a `spending_change` is configured
+    /// - the callout is meaningless for flat spending. `null`
+    /// otherwise (and in the degenerate zero-horizon case).
+    spending_trough: ?projections.SpendingTrough = null,
 };
 
 pub const AsOfSource = enum { live, snapshot, imported };
@@ -335,6 +341,7 @@ pub fn buildProjectionContext(
         config.annual_contribution,
         config.contribution_inflation_adjusted,
         sim_expense_ratio,
+        config.spending_real_change orelse 0,
     );
 
     // Accumulation-phase stats: extract portfolio value at the
@@ -383,6 +390,7 @@ pub fn buildProjectionContext(
                     events,
                     config.max_accumulation_years,
                     sim_expense_ratio,
+                    config.spending_real_change orelse 0,
                 );
             }
         }
@@ -453,6 +461,28 @@ pub fn buildProjectionContext(
         }
     }
 
+    // Spending trough: lowest-spending year of the headline cell
+    // (longest horizon, highest confidence). Surfaced only when a
+    // spending drift is configured. Anchored to the same
+    // `accumulation_years` the grid was computed with, so it lines up
+    // with the "retire now, 1st-year withdrawal" headline.
+    var spending_trough: ?projections.SpendingTrough = null;
+    if (config.spending_real_change) |rate| {
+        const trough_horizons = config.getHorizons();
+        if (trough_horizons.len > 0) {
+            const longest = trough_horizons.len - 1;
+            const swr = data.withdrawals[data.ci_99 * trough_horizons.len + longest];
+            spending_trough = projections.spendingTrough(
+                swr.annual_amount,
+                rate,
+                events,
+                accumulation_years,
+                trough_horizons[longest],
+                as_of,
+            );
+        }
+    }
+
     return .{
         .comparison = comparison,
         .config = config,
@@ -464,6 +494,7 @@ pub fn buildProjectionContext(
         .accumulation = accumulation_stats,
         .earliest = earliest,
         .inputs = inputs,
+        .spending_trough = spending_trough,
     };
 }